Year,Observations,CMIP5 mean,CMIP5 lower,CMIP5 upper,MESM mean,MESM lower,MESM upper
1861,-0.11995,-0.0316894,-0.138045,0.0746663,-0.0600125,-0.0750958,-0.0449292
1862,-0.23295,-0.0364303,-0.110615,0.0377539,0.0288013,0.00121381,0.0563888
1863,0.01205,-0.0389022,-0.145954,0.0681491,-0.0093826,-0.0282713,0.00950612
1864,-0.20095,-0.0376915,-0.148491,0.0731076,-0.0426993,-0.060197,-0.0252015
1865,0.01905,-0.0300292,-0.142471,0.082413,-0.0480563,-0.0643189,-0.0317938
1866,0.04405,-0.0396209,-0.158567,0.0793252,-0.030045,-0.0496436,-0.0104464
1867,-0.02895,-0.0235443,-0.111814,0.0647254,-0.0144132,-0.0295339,0.000707403
1868,0.05905,-0.00780864,-0.0927292,0.0771119,0.00622975,-0.0110646,0.0235241
1869,0.02605,0.0133103,-0.0779043,0.104525,0.0249736,0.00947439,0.0404728
1870,0.01505,0.0119706,-0.0746623,0.0986034,-0.0494825,-0.0635795,-0.0353855
1871,-0.04095,0.0265961,-0.0695565,0.122749,-0.0337485,-0.0507674,-0.0167296
1872,0.06305,0.0145493,-0.0487814,0.07788,0.0820342,0.0610817,0.102987
1873,-0.01095,0.0233445,-0.0860424,0.132731,0.0787082,0.0636836,0.0937328
1874,-0.08195,0.0297646,-0.0640963,0.123626,0.065367,0.032945,0.097789
1875,-0.10395,0.0431229,-0.0633448,0.149591,0.0408515,0.019514,0.062189
1876,-0.08895,0.00342946,-0.131209,0.138068,0.0158301,-0.000603834,0.032264
1877,0.21705,0.01362,-0.103389,0.13063,0.00541835,-0.0107425,0.0215792
1878,0.32905,0.0120713,-0.0963816,0.120524,-0.0198602,-0.0350015,-0.00471895
1879,0.06105,0.0286736,-0.0764209,0.133768,-0.0307344,-0.0481251,-0.0133437
1880,0.06405,0.025264,-0.0768347,0.127363,-0.00977967,-0.0289797,0.00942032
1881,0.08605,0.0282067,-0.0757365,0.13215,0.04505,0.0049791,0.0851209
1882,0.07905,0.0520234,-0.0776063,0.181653,0.063692,0.020765,0.106619
1883,-0.00495002,-0.0187805,-0.141821,0.10426,-0.0716662,-0.099683,-0.0436493
1884,-0.11795,-0.275489,-0.453212,-0.0977655,-0.360197,-0.381255,-0.33914
1885,-0.09695,-0.282005,-0.441479,-0.12253,-0.310443,-0.337468,-0.283418
1886,-0.07495,-0.215417,-0.370818,-0.0600148,-0.233017,-0.266066,-0.199968
1887,-0.12895,-0.181119,-0.326752,-0.0354858,-0.212369,-0.243787,-0.180951
1888,-0.01895,-0.146255,-0.261427,-0.0310836,-0.143753,-0.175648,-0.111858
1889,0.12005,-0.128027,-0.286726,0.0306717,-0.169314,-0.19648,-0.142149
1890,-0.12395,-0.103871,-0.272199,0.0644564,-0.200178,-0.225396,-0.174959
1891,-0.04195,-0.151912,-0.327358,0.0235341,-0.233932,-0.268627,-0.199236
1892,-0.16295,-0.130495,-0.267209,0.00622015,-0.194736,-0.223629,-0.165844
1893,-0.17995,-0.068573,-0.197818,0.0606724,-0.196057,-0.22348,-0.168635
1894,-0.11195,-0.0449081,-0.159696,0.0698793,-0.06028,-0.0920402,-0.0285199
1895,-0.09695,-0.00660624,-0.127835,0.114622,-0.0601681,-0.0847801,-0.0355562
1896,0.10905,0.00102696,-0.114963,0.117017,-0.0761305,-0.101135,-0.0511261
1897,0.08505,0.0090157,-0.12649,0.144522,-0.0873075,-0.110696,-0.0639189
1898,-0.11995,-0.0112503,-0.14616,0.123659,-0.0538054,-0.0767364,-0.0308743
1899,0.00404999,0.0249337,-0.0962848,0.146152,-0.0843027,-0.112803,-0.0558023
1900,0.09505,0.0293793,-0.0836468,0.142405,-0.0157424,-0.0405839,0.0090991
1901,0.03205,0.0233834,-0.0968389,0.143606,0.00882823,-0.0142815,0.031938
1902,-0.11095,7.33E-05,-0.122449,0.122596,-0.0498061,-0.0711125,-0.0284998
1903,-0.18895,-0.168137,-0.340824,0.004549,-0.161374,-0.184395,-0.138354
1904,-0.22595,-0.146439,-0.295641,0.00276415,-0.154984,-0.177982,-0.131987
1905,-0.08395,-0.0838569,-0.21938,0.0516661,-0.0792795,-0.112077,-0.046482
1906,0.00904998,-0.0404785,-0.199153,0.118196,-0.055426,-0.0810174,-0.0298345
1907,-0.17295,-0.0317855,-0.166585,0.103014,-0.0754658,-0.100179,-0.0507524
1908,-0.21795,-0.0222671,-0.145765,0.101231,0.0658419,0.0233266,0.108357
1909,-0.22995,-0.00111537,-0.135071,0.13284,0.0424767,0.0136608,0.0712927
1910,-0.19795,0.0159401,-0.13438,0.166261,0.0580601,0.0238382,0.0922819
1911,-0.24995,0.0266793,-0.107899,0.161257,0.043308,0.0153618,0.0712543
1912,-0.14395,0.00895314,-0.137509,0.155415,-0.00236118,-0.0268344,0.0221121
1913,-0.13195,-0.0491302,-0.209657,0.111397,-0.052135,-0.0767602,-0.0275098
1914,0.04805,-0.0161994,-0.155636,0.123237,-0.00972436,-0.0392104,0.0197616
1915,0.14605,0.0411644,-0.0725282,0.154857,0.0484608,0.0178094,0.0791122
1916,-0.08895,0.0667626,-0.0940035,0.227529,0.052476,0.0249547,0.0799972
1917,-0.16995,0.0791298,-0.0884235,0.246683,0.0659911,0.0427526,0.0892296
1918,-0.03795,0.0844826,-0.0799917,0.248957,0.0461814,0.0216334,0.0707293
1919,0.02105,0.0843926,-0.0633754,0.232161,0.0751926,0.047161,0.103224
1920,0.05205,0.111929,-0.0191609,0.243018,-0.0183215,-0.0439686,0.00732549
1921,0.10605,0.104757,-0.0333517,0.242866,0.0424724,0.016895,0.0680497
1922,-0.00795001,0.120797,-0.021759,0.263353,0.0773127,0.0409428,0.113683
1923,0.02105,0.139297,-0.0128265,0.29142,0.116451,0.0865468,0.146355
1924,0.00105,0.139838,-0.00368099,0.283356,0.0998586,0.0686716,0.131046
1925,0.07905,0.147283,0.00936012,0.285206,0.0444444,0.0165071,0.0723817
1926,0.18805,0.147054,0.00811693,0.28599,0.0859308,0.0578009,0.114061
1927,0.08505,0.165566,0.019044,0.312089,0.0545653,0.0248637,0.0842669
1928,0.08705,0.16639,0.0362155,0.296565,0.0926863,0.0585542,0.126818
1929,-0.05495,0.134839,-0.00513579,0.274814,0.0378014,0.00930556,0.0662972
1930,0.15905,0.118601,-0.0336701,0.270873,0.103512,0.0747267,0.132296
1931,0.21005,0.142736,-0.00393051,0.289403,0.113086,0.085652,0.14052
1932,0.15905,0.155463,-0.00233667,0.313264,0.0953002,0.0683904,0.12221
1933,0.02605,0.0946145,-0.045997,0.235226,0.101523,0.0734537,0.129592
1934,0.16605,0.10493,-0.0570888,0.266949,0.188155,0.147671,0.228638
1935,0.12105,0.152164,-0.00418615,0.308514,0.162012,0.131133,0.192891
1936,0.15305,0.183067,0.0420462,0.324088,0.148138,0.116664,0.179612
1937,0.27105,0.196408,0.032646,0.36017,0.164111,0.126459,0.201763
1938,0.29005,0.195281,0.0603837,0.330177,0.13759,0.105101,0.17008
1939,0.24605,0.192266,0.0509637,0.333569,0.131772,0.0992303,0.164314
1940,0.31105,0.183743,0.0404298,0.327057,0.174024,0.134322,0.213726
1941,0.31305,0.210194,0.0273631,0.393026,0.211044,0.172653,0.249436
1942,0.26905,0.195594,0.0493543,0.341834,0.270475,0.22692,0.314029
1943,0.29305,0.19756,0.0500711,0.345049,0.245822,0.206,0.285643
1944,0.44205,0.214713,0.0528882,0.376538,0.24718,0.20633,0.288031
1945,0.32005,0.212589,0.0621164,0.363061,0.2439,0.206089,0.281711
1946,0.22105,0.196272,0.0420796,0.350464,0.26497,0.222436,0.307505
1947,0.25505,0.224535,0.0692324,0.379837,0.223537,0.183558,0.263516
1948,0.25605,0.244969,0.0661343,0.423804,0.287727,0.248737,0.326717
1949,0.22105,0.250722,0.0832032,0.41824,0.250072,0.209775,0.290369
1950,0.12105,0.232093,0.0496186,0.414568,0.218437,0.177143,0.259731
1951,0.24205,0.235691,0.0540464,0.417336,0.217103,0.177295,0.256912
1952,0.32405,0.230448,0.0582749,0.402622,0.217499,0.175746,0.259252
1953,0.39005,0.221812,0.0726931,0.37093,0.233329,0.191642,0.275015
1954,0.16405,0.21763,0.0633636,0.371897,0.230819,0.187402,0.274235
1955,0.10305,0.21984,0.0504844,0.389196,0.233643,0.190108,0.277179
1956,0.02705,0.240689,0.0589465,0.422432,0.207371,0.161788,0.252953
1957,0.28905,0.254426,0.0631481,0.445704,0.239269,0.192561,0.285976
1958,0.33905,0.242641,0.0512042,0.434079,0.260042,0.211734,0.30835
1959,0.31005,0.242742,0.0529417,0.432543,0.338718,0.289052,0.388383
1960,0.24405,0.259161,0.0548199,0.463503,0.33784,0.285054,0.390626
1961,0.33305,0.248721,0.0596218,0.437821,0.315424,0.260618,0.370229
1962,0.30905,0.232937,0.0440107,0.421863,0.402408,0.341029,0.463788
1963,0.34205,0.15609,-0.0111021,0.323282,0.330068,0.271915,0.388222
1964,0.07005,0.0292191,-0.158242,0.21668,0.196777,0.133737,0.259816
1965,0.15305,0.0691338,-0.118969,0.257236,0.13973,0.0815142,0.197946
1966,0.22405,0.106072,-0.0915323,0.303675,0.200258,0.14196,0.258555
1967,0.21905,0.129754,-0.0843847,0.343893,0.221203,0.161025,0.281382
1968,0.18105,0.153042,-0.0732378,0.379322,0.243121,0.182699,0.303543
1969,0.32405,0.160428,-0.0650861,0.385942,0.221169,0.159311,0.283027
1970,0.26605,0.180447,-0.0390679,0.399963,0.255646,0.190771,0.320521
1971,0.10605,0.217716,-0.0012808,0.436712,0.30129,0.234652,0.367928
1972,0.22605,0.25277,0.0195132,0.486026,0.314251,0.245174,0.383328
1973,0.35505,0.263099,0.0275357,0.498662,0.330861,0.253453,0.408269
1974,0.08005,0.259363,0.00389156,0.514834,0.303257,0.22777,0.378744
1975,0.14605,0.259978,0.0180538,0.501902,0.304234,0.23033,0.378137
1976,0.05305,0.272317,0.0430592,0.501574,0.300636,0.223081,0.378192
1977,0.33905,0.290614,0.0456056,0.535623,0.333872,0.256414,0.411331
1978,0.23005,0.347063,0.123722,0.570405,0.37624,0.292279,0.460201
1979,0.35105,0.365106,0.133078,0.597135,0.439603,0.35861,0.520595
1980,0.38605,0.412077,0.169571,0.654582,0.472104,0.390642,0.553567
1981,0.43305,0.449918,0.185957,0.713878,0.484117,0.40337,0.564864
1982,0.30405,0.365903,0.106698,0.625107,0.438863,0.357195,0.520531
1983,0.48605,0.283655,0.0244759,0.542834,0.274232,0.194742,0.353723
1984,0.28005,0.373737,0.135442,0.612033,0.336859,0.257264,0.416454
1985,0.26305,0.400251,0.178308,0.622194,0.420395,0.338599,0.502191
1986,0.33905,0.422454,0.182257,0.662651,0.50868,0.414273,0.603087
1987,0.48405,0.481097,0.225984,0.736211,0.496405,0.40858,0.584231
1988,0.49205,0.516238,0.267095,0.765382,0.539808,0.451194,0.628422
1989,0.41105,0.55864,0.309892,0.807387,0.589196,0.501249,0.677143
1990,0.58905,0.621813,0.366559,0.877068,0.582203,0.49315,0.671255
1991,0.54705,0.560534,0.31939,0.801678,0.585395,0.497091,0.673699
1992,0.39605,0.359656,0.140795,0.578517,0.342809,0.257309,0.428309
1993,0.43805,0.4301,0.19469,0.665509,0.431868,0.348466,0.51527
1994,0.49905,0.495441,0.235324,0.755559,0.512074,0.428989,0.595158
1995,0.61405,0.550935,0.287671,0.814199,0.594812,0.505045,0.68458
1996,0.47305,0.63327,0.347804,0.918736,0.615368,0.527267,0.70347
1997,0.68205,0.692326,0.413148,0.971505,0.675744,0.58415,0.767337
1998,0.82905,0.714376,0.413027,1.01573,0.69975,0.608923,0.790576
1999,0.59905,0.747965,0.465438,1.03049,0.781332,0.680458,0.882206
2000,0.58605,0.799821,0.516939,1.0827,0.801749,0.705384,0.898113
2001,0.73205,0.849114,0.5566,1.14163,0.808878,0.71036,0.907395
2002,0.79005,0.886304,0.607954,1.16465,0.779784,0.681233,0.878336
2003,0.80105,0.878258,0.587847,1.16867,0.795488,0.694958,0.896018
2004,0.74105,0.885394,0.573629,1.19716,0.844425,0.742853,0.945997
2005,0.83705,0.955859,0.671248,1.24047,0.836877,0.734419,0.939336
2006,0.79805,0.945814,0.647287,1.24434,0.814242,0.709104,0.91938
2007,0.78505,0.919653,0.612674,1.22663,0.837152,0.724379,0.949925
2008,0.68705,0.950769,0.639179,1.26236,0.858418,0.75102,0.965815
2009,0.79905,1.00768,0.689165,1.32618,0.900457,0.790089,1.01083
2010,0.84905,1.04119,0.744459,1.33793,0.87153,0.758536,0.984523