Year,Observations,CMIP5 mean,CMIP5 lower,CMIP5 upper,MESM mean,MESM lower,MESM upper
1861,9.97E+36,-0.00051045,-0.0103673,0.00934643,-0.00654718,-0.00818569,-0.00490866
1862,9.97E+36,-0.00273308,-0.0118002,0.00633401,-0.0111898,-0.0129634,-0.00941613
1863,9.97E+36,-0.00303961,-0.0130029,0.00692368,-0.00212196,-0.00391097,-0.000332952
1864,9.97E+36,-0.00236968,-0.0116301,0.00689071,-0.00447201,-0.00623197,-0.00271204
1865,9.97E+36,0.000982333,-0.00934832,0.011313,0.00227255,0.000514062,0.00403104
1866,9.97E+36,-0.00100524,-0.0125029,0.0104924,-0.0107926,-0.0125621,-0.00902313
1867,9.97E+36,-0.00167465,-0.00991218,0.00656288,-0.00348683,-0.00518627,-0.00178739
1868,9.97E+36,0.000452552,-0.00773859,0.0086437,-0.00568963,-0.00734006,-0.0040392
1869,9.97E+36,0.000355262,-0.00657476,0.00728529,-0.00388054,-0.00551735,-0.00224372
1870,9.97E+36,0.001058,-0.0079238,0.0100398,0.00621593,0.00452259,0.00790927
1871,9.97E+36,0.00221106,-0.00834635,0.0127685,-0.0014984,-0.0031525,0.000155704
1872,9.97E+36,0.000402206,-0.00678746,0.00759187,0.00101862,-0.000636267,0.00267351
1873,9.97E+36,0.00233594,-0.0077428,0.0124147,0.00819659,0.00655534,0.00983784
1874,9.97E+36,0.00267534,-0.00538729,0.010738,0.00770019,0.00601373,0.00938665
1875,9.97E+36,0.00210459,-0.0101997,0.0144089,0.00945797,0.00763897,0.011277
1876,9.97E+36,-0.000260549,-0.011698,0.0111769,0.00866214,0.00691987,0.0104044
1877,9.97E+36,-0.00038799,-0.0117407,0.0109648,-0.000701191,-0.0026313,0.00122892
1878,9.97E+36,-8.58E-05,-0.0113777,0.0112061,0.000310828,-0.00139406,0.00201572
1879,9.97E+36,0.00136179,-0.00900959,0.0117332,0.00481162,0.00315042,0.00647281
1880,9.97E+36,-0.00187217,-0.0125031,0.00875874,0.00173358,0.000114908,0.00335224
1881,9.97E+36,-0.000687209,-0.00926126,0.00788684,-0.00554212,-0.0073696,-0.00371463
1882,9.97E+36,0.00325746,-0.00803124,0.0145462,-0.000283442,-0.00264231,0.00207542
1883,9.97E+36,-0.00554107,-0.0174439,0.0063618,-0.00422284,-0.00680185,-0.00164384
1884,9.97E+36,-0.0299562,-0.0496477,-0.0102647,-0.047849,-0.0502122,-0.0454857
1885,9.97E+36,-0.0295892,-0.0452444,-0.013934,-0.0413194,-0.0448589,-0.03778
1886,9.97E+36,-0.0226594,-0.0386984,-0.00662035,-0.0248346,-0.0284229,-0.0212462
1887,9.97E+36,-0.0202819,-0.0354309,-0.00513282,-0.0229305,-0.0262783,-0.0195828
1888,9.97E+36,-0.0129167,-0.0218812,-0.00395227,-0.0190418,-0.0222274,-0.0158562
1889,9.97E+36,-0.014546,-0.0293637,0.000271658,-0.0198857,-0.0226927,-0.0170786
1890,9.97E+36,-0.0127229,-0.0265795,0.00113361,-0.0206627,-0.0233895,-0.0179359
1891,9.97E+36,-0.0147255,-0.0282401,-0.00121092,-0.0284777,-0.0314739,-0.0254814
1892,9.97E+36,-0.0138051,-0.026449,-0.00116125,-0.0195721,-0.0227352,-0.0164089
1893,9.97E+36,-0.00874752,-0.0204944,0.00299942,-0.00750964,-0.0104982,-0.00452112
1894,9.97E+36,-0.00712787,-0.0182348,0.00397904,-0.00926061,-0.0119978,-0.00652341
1895,9.97E+36,-0.00443552,-0.0138529,0.00498181,-0.0136663,-0.0159952,-0.0113375
1896,9.97E+36,-0.00249584,-0.0136597,0.00866798,-0.00612303,-0.0084332,-0.00381286
1897,9.97E+36,-0.00666154,-0.0185896,0.00526647,-0.0131959,-0.015415,-0.0109768
1898,9.97E+36,-0.00633684,-0.0162014,0.00352768,-0.012784,-0.0151614,-0.0104066
1899,9.97E+36,-0.00353191,-0.0143915,0.00732771,-0.00910656,-0.0114773,-0.00673579
1900,-0.00735094,-0.000640485,-0.0127306,0.0114496,-0.00735094,-0.00983047,-0.00487141
1901,0.0159261,-0.00578695,-0.015965,0.00439113,-0.000586708,-0.00292994,0.00175652
1902,-0.00382688,-0.00451604,-0.0141683,0.00513623,-0.00953604,-0.0116813,-0.00739073
1903,0.00205014,-0.0197741,-0.0364959,-0.00305233,-0.0296509,-0.0318481,-0.0274538
1904,-0.0152717,-0.0177709,-0.0315061,-0.00403562,-0.0216255,-0.0240982,-0.0191528
1905,-0.00275113,-0.0139636,-0.0257374,-0.00218988,-0.0151511,-0.0175696,-0.0127326
1906,0.00258658,-0.00879199,-0.0231233,0.00553931,-0.0105708,-0.0129625,-0.00817915
1907,-0.0350654,-0.00755123,-0.0208656,0.0057632,-0.0148421,-0.0172338,-0.0124503
1908,0.00559662,-0.00755157,-0.0209774,0.00587425,-0.0040722,-0.00654956,-0.00159484
1909,0.027158,-0.00794892,-0.0200144,0.00411652,-0.000280893,-0.00295542,0.00239364
1910,0.00190351,-0.0059695,-0.0204611,0.00852214,-0.00490559,-0.00742705,-0.00238412
1911,-0.0165055,-0.00268016,-0.0142767,0.00891635,0.00349375,0.00089356,0.00609394
1912,0.00607751,-0.00566266,-0.0175969,0.00627155,0.000962741,-0.00161502,0.00354051
1913,-0.00724532,-0.00802054,-0.0216868,0.00564571,-0.00198311,-0.00439424,0.000428027
1914,0.00688146,-0.0100511,-0.0219441,0.00184201,-0.00455671,-0.00688258,-0.00223083
1915,0.0118434,-0.00690849,-0.0161702,0.00235318,-0.00731216,-0.00970967,-0.00491466
1916,0.0197353,-0.00310858,-0.0142985,0.00808134,-0.000269431,-0.00267024,0.00213138
1917,0.0180425,-0.0025773,-0.0167188,0.0115642,0.00254869,0.00012708,0.00497031
1918,-0.00941612,-0.00207065,-0.0175304,0.0133891,0.00250618,4.72E-05,0.00496514
1919,0.0067868,-0.00349949,-0.0177413,0.0107423,0.00265956,0.000178428,0.0051407
1920,-0.00705912,0.000438706,-0.0114142,0.0122916,-0.00175593,-0.00430299,0.000791131
1921,0.0408082,-0.00219259,-0.015598,0.0112129,-0.00141024,-0.00395174,0.00113127
1922,0.00619886,-0.00124064,-0.0124101,0.00992886,-0.00659405,-0.00915768,-0.00403042
1923,0.0150451,0.00100624,-0.0108327,0.0128452,0.00623433,0.00347267,0.008996
1924,0.0182476,-0.00181964,-0.0159533,0.0123141,0.00497747,0.00219969,0.00775525
1925,-0.0172172,0.00093623,-0.0102885,0.012161,-0.00146021,-0.00423644,0.00131602
1926,-0.00131728,-0.00124976,-0.0152224,0.0127229,0.00625076,0.00346097,0.00904055
1927,-0.0240967,0.00394053,-0.00988093,0.017762,0.012733,0.00981397,0.015652
1928,0.0256939,0.000351018,-0.0133915,0.0140935,0.00225035,-0.000578673,0.00507938
1929,0.0314653,0.000745405,-0.0129847,0.0144755,0.00249205,-0.000378363,0.00536245
1930,0.0316064,-0.000960928,-0.0138954,0.0119735,0.00202948,-0.000896425,0.00495538
1931,0.00626824,0.00144696,-0.0135628,0.0164567,0.00329655,0.0004684,0.00612471
1932,-0.0137975,0.00149344,-0.0131106,0.0160974,0.000587907,-0.002215,0.00339081
1933,0.014394,-0.00072697,-0.0170292,0.0155753,0.00368767,0.000793869,0.00658147
1934,-0.025444,-0.00451746,-0.0169504,0.00791551,-0.00166188,-0.00454595,0.0012222
1935,-0.00584461,0.000840715,-0.0123283,0.0140097,0.0148381,0.0116696,0.0180066
1936,0.00852988,0.00401225,-0.0103368,0.0183613,0.015413,0.0122025,0.0186235
1937,-0.00400354,0.00161987,-0.0153303,0.0185701,0.0120284,0.00877497,0.0152818
1938,0.0273588,0.00437425,-0.00760971,0.0163582,0.00476587,0.00148094,0.00805079
1939,0.0281455,0.00217059,-0.0113315,0.0156726,0.00883942,0.00573481,0.011944
1940,-0.00134232,0.00218371,-0.0104632,0.0148306,0.00334927,0.000281604,0.00641694
1941,-0.00150253,0.00329633,-0.0117544,0.0183471,0.00751453,0.00405921,0.0109699
1942,-0.00471618,0.00572078,-0.00658256,0.0180241,0.00736734,0.00379361,0.0109411
1943,0.0426111,0.00230475,-0.0102488,0.0148583,0.0187511,0.0149515,0.0225507
1944,-0.00256159,0.0028645,-0.00888086,0.0146099,0.0193419,0.0154029,0.023281
1945,0.0171773,0.00174485,-0.011813,0.0153027,0.00893596,0.00516654,0.0127054
1946,-0.0235298,0.00241813,-0.00982281,0.0146591,0.00992381,0.00604802,0.0137996
1947,0.00177811,0.00322421,-0.0134352,0.0198836,0.0177497,0.0136759,0.0218235
1948,0.00747559,0.00325478,-0.0103209,0.0168305,0.0174533,0.0135253,0.0213813
1949,-0.00310924,0.00517317,-0.00862634,0.0189727,0.0191769,0.0151556,0.0231982
1950,-0.0370789,0.002212,-0.012649,0.017073,0.0122888,0.00815014,0.0164275
1951,-0.019022,0.000307029,-0.0135879,0.0142019,0.0141113,0.010155,0.0180677
1952,-0.00346353,0.00340139,-0.0114081,0.0182109,0.0140288,0.0101339,0.0179237
1953,0.0247106,-0.000265531,-0.0148133,0.0142823,0.0108814,0.00688842,0.0148745
1954,0.0182853,0.000708095,-0.0145697,0.0159859,0.0133963,0.00949534,0.0172973
1955,0.0107763,0.000181568,-0.0148528,0.015216,0.0138854,0.00986917,0.0179016
1956,-0.00525596,0.000656594,-0.0130784,0.0143916,0.0132495,0.00909138,0.0174076
1957,-0.00265934,0.00259766,-0.0142437,0.019439,0.0167008,0.0124539,0.0209478
1958,0.0551133,0.00135142,-0.0148013,0.0175041,0.0249768,0.0206225,0.0293312
1959,0.021095,0.0003239,-0.0175709,0.0182187,0.0173784,0.012826,0.0219309
1960,0.0321078,0.00207792,-0.0161927,0.0203485,0.0146823,0.00993559,0.0194289
1961,0.0115816,-0.00163231,-0.0199756,0.016711,0.0121564,0.00719258,0.0171203
1962,-0.00631096,-0.00198925,-0.0196645,0.0156859,0.0170584,0.0119646,0.0221521
1963,0.00515078,-0.00705332,-0.020017,0.00591033,0.0205135,0.0152424,0.0257846
1964,0.0219633,-0.0234874,-0.0415694,-0.00540533,-0.00183264,-0.00706071,0.00339543
1965,-0.0196228,-0.0207835,-0.0415963,2.94E-05,-0.00434881,-0.00938254,0.000684915
1966,0.0130217,-0.0176315,-0.0369428,0.00167971,9.33E-05,-0.00496756,0.00515417
1967,0.0126607,-0.0147776,-0.0323649,0.00280963,0.00564829,0.000568067,0.0107285
1968,-0.0438867,-0.0132304,-0.03217,0.0057092,-0.00388208,-0.00925657,0.00149241
1969,0.00567363,-0.013572,-0.0333455,0.00620148,-0.00119223,-0.00668076,0.00429629
1970,0.0280354,-0.0136395,-0.0338359,0.00655693,0.000968091,-0.00465523,0.00659142
1971,0.00626586,-0.0101741,-0.0281378,0.00778968,0.0138038,0.00789473,0.0197129
1972,-0.00325777,-0.00858929,-0.0318795,0.014701,0.0169151,0.0109784,0.0228519
1973,0.053637,-0.00752227,-0.0282917,0.0132471,0.0181851,0.011806,0.0245642
1974,-0.00445392,-0.00879044,-0.030705,0.0131241,0.0173797,0.0108064,0.0239529
1975,0.0145218,-0.010728,-0.0352956,0.0138395,0.0173166,0.0105906,0.0240425
1976,0.0197341,-0.0101923,-0.0301032,0.0097185,0.012479,0.00581216,0.0191458
1977,0.00764654,-0.00823069,-0.0302695,0.0138081,0.0127573,0.00593212,0.0195824
1978,0.00947998,-0.0044722,-0.0255369,0.0165925,0.018439,0.0115258,0.0253521
1979,0.00144337,-0.00658718,-0.0279413,0.014767,0.0240953,0.0170118,0.0311789
1980,0.00155328,-0.00437765,-0.0267218,0.0179665,0.0152806,0.00803166,0.0225295
1981,0.00230048,-0.0012334,-0.0262232,0.0237564,0.0245752,0.0169852,0.0321651
1982,-0.000968476,-0.0111529,-0.0356663,0.0133605,0.0127891,0.00545374,0.0201245
1983,0.000674705,-0.016626,-0.0438962,0.0106441,-0.00276218,-0.00988191,0.00435755
1984,-0.0314198,-0.00794218,-0.0350229,0.0191385,0.0073736,0.000514731,0.0142325
1985,-0.0101626,-0.00859436,-0.0311644,0.0139757,0.0192886,0.0121973,0.02638
1986,-0.00253512,-0.00612392,-0.0302163,0.0179684,0.0188913,0.0113715,0.0264111
1987,0.0257513,-0.00369972,-0.0305489,0.0231494,0.0291754,0.0211037,0.0372471
1988,0.0347469,-0.000982741,-0.024718,0.0227525,0.0265674,0.018374,0.0347607
1989,0.0100958,0.00139531,-0.0215872,0.0243778,0.0282617,0.0203131,0.0362102
1990,0.0260091,0.00759528,-0.0179867,0.0331772,0.0349292,0.0267124,0.043146
1991,0.029933,0.000452913,-0.0251478,0.0260537,0.0255075,0.0174193,0.0335958
1992,0.0034623,-0.0192324,-0.0470908,0.00862599,-0.00318688,-0.0108969,0.00452315
1993,-0.0148595,-0.00915556,-0.0368483,0.0185372,0.00903939,0.00177292,0.0163059
1994,0.0123057,-0.00232985,-0.0269941,0.0223344,0.015469,0.00807031,0.0228677
1995,0.0161941,0.000279117,-0.0229038,0.023462,0.0246237,0.0170092,0.0322382
1996,0.0208285,0.0042947,-0.0240096,0.032599,0.0358314,0.0278337,0.0438292
1997,0.0346985,0.00765093,-0.0200175,0.0353193,0.0432869,0.0350321,0.0515418
1998,0.029334,0.0100271,-0.0166852,0.0367395,0.0387815,0.0304122,0.0471509
1999,0.00847695,0.0134085,-0.01336,0.040177,0.0479088,0.0394839,0.0563338
2000,0.00830028,0.0133852,-0.0137338,0.0405042,0.0486246,0.0397307,0.0575186
2001,0.0168905,0.0163199,-0.0102168,0.0428566,0.0472765,0.0381579,0.0563952
2002,0.0424173,0.0216706,-0.00675254,0.0500937,0.0517054,0.0425728,0.060838
2003,0.0428433,0.0199564,-0.00568863,0.0456015,0.0483173,0.0391093,0.0575254
2004,0.0226197,0.0189586,-0.0069283,0.0448455,0.0520222,0.0425982,0.0614462
2005,0.0544729,0.0258204,0.000545874,0.0510948,0.056495,0.0469478,0.0660423
2006,0.02457,0.0213221,-0.00546692,0.0481111,0.0559902,0.0463026,0.0656778
2007,0.0573132,0.021876,-0.00511491,0.0488668,0.0479055,0.0382126,0.0575984
2008,0.0421531,0.0186268,-0.00814103,0.0453946,0.0510132,0.0413253,0.0607011
2009,9.97E+36,0.0249221,-0.00238737,0.0522315,0.0549377,0.0451184,0.064757
2010,9.97E+36,0.0293899,-0.00131877,0.0600985,0.0629697,0.0526885,0.0732509