https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142308 2026-04-08T17:59:10Z 2026-04-08T17:59:10Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141739 2023-08-22T17:36:27Z 2017-07-27T00:00:00Z

The Theory of Lateral Pressure: Highlights of Quantification and Empirical Analysis Choucri, Nazli The term lateral pressure refers to any tendency (or propensity) of states, firms, and other entities to expand their activities and exert influence and control beyond their established boundaries, whether for economic, political, military, scientific, religious, or other purposes. Framed by Robert C. North and Nazli Choucri, the theory addresses the sources and consequences of such a tendency. This chapter presents the core features—assumptions, logic, core variables, and dynamics—and summarizes the quantitative work undertaken to date. Some aspects of the theory analysis are more readily quantifiable than others. Some are consistent with conventional theory in international relations. Others are based on insights and evidence from other areas of knowledge, thus departing from tradition in potentially significant ways. Initially applied to the causes of war, the theory focuses on the question of: Who does what, when, how, and with what consequences? The causal logic in lateral pressure theory runs from the internal drivers (i.e., the master variables that shape the profiles of states) through the intervening variables (i.e., aggregated and articulated demands given prevailing capabilities), and the outcomes often generate added complexities. To the extent that states expand their activities outside territorial boundaries, driven by a wide range of capabilities and motivations, they are likely to encounter other states similarly engaged. The intersection among spheres of influence is the first step in complex dynamics that lead to hostilities, escalation, and eventually conflict and violence. The quantitative analysis of lateral pressure theory consists of six distinct phases. The first phase began with a large-scale, cross- national, multiple equation econometric investigation of the 45 years leading to World War I, followed by a system of simultaneous equations representing conflict dynamics among competing powers in the post–World War II era. The second phase is a detailed econometric analysis of Japan over the span of more than a century and two World Wars. The third phase of lateral pressure involves system dynamics modeling of growth and expansion of states from 1970s to the end of the 20th century and explores the use of fuzzy logic in this process. The fourth phase focuses on the state-based sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases to endogenize the natural environment in the study of international relations. The fifth phase presents a detailed ontology of the driving variables shaping lateral pressure and their critical constituents in order to (a) frame their interconnections, (b) capture knowledge on sustainable development, (c) create knowledge management methods for the search, retrieval, and use of knowledge on sustainable development and (d) examine the use of visualization techniques for knowledge display and analysis. The sixth, and most recent, phase of lateral pressure theory and empirical analysis examines the new realities created by the construction of cyberspace and interactions with the traditional international order.

2017-07-27T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli North, Robert C. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141604 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z

Lateral pressure in international relations: Concept and theory Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C.

1989-01-01T00:00:00Z Anderson, Ed Choucri, Nazli Goldsmith, Daniel Madnick, Stuart E. Siegel, Michael D. Sturtevant, Dan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141602 2022-05-05T16:24:12Z 2009-02-02T00:00:00Z

System dynamics modeling for Pro-Active intelligence (PAINT) Anderson, Ed; Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D.; Sturtevant, Dan The Pro-Active Intelligence (PAINT) program, sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), was formed to address the challenges1 posed by distributed human networks, including terrorists and insurgencies, both independent and state-sponsored. In particular, certain threats (including emerging dual-use technologies) are difficult to detect using traditional intelligence means because: (a) indicators are difficult to discern and may give little warning time, (b) there is usually limited relevant data collection and integration capability, and (c) expertise is generally diverse and disconnected. Over the course of 18 months from September 2007 to February 2009, an effort, led by researchers from MIT, was initiated to develop computational social science models to study and understand the dynamics of complex intelligence targets for nefarious technology activities (broadly defined as activities outside U.S. national interest). System dynamics models were developed because they offered great opportunities to (a) understand and represent determinants of nefarious technology development, (b) to identify aspects of critical pathways, such as resource management, towards the development of nefarious technologies, and (c) support a modeling based strategy for the identification of new sources of intelligence. This report describes the “System Dynamics Modeling for Pro-Active Intelligence” effort and its two thrusts: (a) development of a comprehensive holistic system dynamics model to represent, understand, and differentiate nefarious and benign activities and (b) the development of a detailed system dynamics resource model that can be used as a component of a multi-method federation of models. In both cases, simulations were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of these models in demonstrating system behavior and, on occasion, highlighting potentially counter-intuitive behaviors.

2009-02-02T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141599 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1970-01-01T00:00:00Z

International conflict processes: A system view Choucri, Nazli

1970-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141598 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1973-01-01T00:00:00Z

International non–alignment: Quantitative perspectives on the Afro–Asian variant Choucri, Nazli

1973-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141597 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1980-01-01T00:00:00Z

International political economy: A theoretical perspective Choucri, Nazli

1980-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141596 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z

Population, resources, technology, and environment: Trends and implications Choucri, Nazli

1984-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141595 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z

The reality of theory: reflections and reassessment Choucri, Nazli

1989-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141594 2022-05-05T16:24:38Z 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z

Analytical and behavioral perspectives: Causes of war and strategies for peace Choucri, Nazli

1991-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli North, Robert C. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141593 2022-05-05T16:25:07Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Roots of war: The master variables Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141523 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1986-04-01T00:00:00Z

Demographics and conflict Choucri, Nazli Conflict and population are strongly interrelated, and the linkages go both ways. Under certain conditions population variables lead to conflict, and under other conditions the existence of conflict can have profound impacts on demographic characteristics. Yet these links are seldom simple or direct, and they are modified by intervening processes.

1986-04-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141522 2022-07-27T02:19:50Z 1969-03-01T00:00:00Z

The perceptual base of nonalignment Choucri, Nazli Almost two-thirds of the nations in the world have chosen not to join either of the two dominant alliance systems—the Communist of the Western. Most of these states, generally known as the "third world." are Afro-Asian and their nonalignment signifies freedom from constraints imposed by alliances with major powers (Rossi, 1963). While it is misleading to consider the nonaligned states as a group homogenous in attitude and behavior the degree of variation among them is largely an empirical question. This articled examines the attitudinal orientation of three Afro-Asian nations—India, Egypt, and Indonesia—during the later 1950s and early 1960s, an important period in the development of nonalignment. Our primary objective is to identify the more general perceptions at the base of this policy. The model of the international system implicit in our analysis is admittedly oversimplified,, for the world is more complex than simply major powers and nonaligned states. However, for the purpose of systematic analysis, a parsimonious model is more useful than an intricate, though undoubtedly more realistic, portrayal of the international system.

1969-03-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141521 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1969-01-01T00:00:00Z

The nonalignment of Afro–Asian States: Policy, perception, and behavior. Choucri, Nazli The purpose of this paper* is to examine the orientation of three Afro-Asian states in world politics during the mid 1950s and early 1960s-an important period in the development of their current international posture-with primary emphasis on the relationship between official policy, attitudes of the national leaderships, and actual behaviour. Nations do not always behave in accordance with stated policies, nor are their actions necessarily congruent with dominant attitudes. The degree of consistency between these three aspects of national orientation is the question to which this enquiry is addressed. The states exa- mined-India, Egypt, and Indonesia-were selected not because they represent Afro-Asia as a whole, but because they expressed in the most forceful terms the position of the "third world" during this period.

1969-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli North, Robert C. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141520 2022-05-05T16:33:58Z 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z

Dynamics of international conflict: Some policy implications of population, resources, and technology Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. International conflict has been accounted for in many different ways—in terms of aggressive “instincts,” territoriality, population growth, the search for basic resources or seaports, the protection of trade routes, psychopathological deviations, plunder and profit, a drive for imperialist control, and so forth. Some theorists have considered grievances, competition, anxieties, tension, threat, and provocation to be of special importance. Others have laid heavy emphasis upon national power or capability, military preparedness, strategic considerations, and the competition for dominance.1 No doubt most if not all of these variables are relevant, but this recognition does not help much in the development of a theory of war, its dynamics, and contributing causal networks. In the long run all factors need to be pulled together in some systematic way. A serious difficulty emerges from the fact that the various “causes” that contribute to war tend to be highly interactive, that is, they affect each other in various ways and often in many different directions. The problem is to find out, if possible, which variables are contributing most to international violence and in what proportion. The purpose of this paper is to take an early step in this direction by reporting on some empirical research currently under way and by presenting some tentative findings which suggest partial explanations and some implications and difficulties for national policies.

1972-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141519 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z

Resource constraints as causes of conflict Choucri, Nazli There is a crucial connection between resource constraints and Conflict among nations. As yet, however, the international community has paid little attention to that link. It is thereby missing the opportunity to develop preventive measures as well as effective responses should a conflict occur. Such acute myopia ill serves global needs, nor does it help efforts to design a better world for the 21st century.

1991-01-01T00:00:00Z North, Robert C. Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141518 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z

Economic and political factors in international conflict and integration North, Robert C.; Choucri, Nazli In earlier efforts to explain international conflict and integration, the central focus was upon national attributes and decisionmaking as crucial to understanding the actions of states in war- and peacemaking. Recently, however, we have begun to critically reconsider these assumptions. In the face of their inability to fully account for the actions of states in international conflict and cooperation, we have sought out a more basic, disaggregated approach to these questions. We believe that the concept of leverage may serve as an important explanatory factor in theories of interstate relations. Here we offer some preliminary arguments concerning leverage and bargaining among domestic and international actors, fleshing out some of the possible relationships between economic and political behaviors and their effects on the war- and peacemaking activities of states in the international system.

1983-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Wickboldt, Anne-Katrin https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141517 2022-05-05T16:00:27Z 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z

Profiles of states as fuzzy sets: Methodological refinement of lateral pressure theory Choucri, Nazli; Wickboldt, Anne-Katrin One of the most serious challenges in international relations pertains to the theory and measurement of transformation and change. This paper proposes, and then develops a conceptual and methodological extension in the measurement of change within and across states as postulated by lateral pressure theory. It argues, and shows, that by conceptualizing the profiles of states identified by lateral pressure theory using fuzzy logic, we can systematically and precisely locate and track relative changes in the distribution of states within and across profile spaces, across geographical regions, as well as over time. This may be an important step toward identifying and possibly anticipating changes in the configuration of states, including conflict-prone constellations, before they escalate into conflict or war. It may also improve our understanding of those regions of the world and help articulate the implications of significant geopolitical changes as they occur.

2006-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141509 2022-05-05T16:35:51Z 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z

Environment and conflict: New principles for environmental conduct Choucri, Nazli The crucial connections between environment and conflict among nations continue to escape political scrutiny. The international community as yet pays little attention to such connections, thereby missing the opportunity for both preventive measures and effective responses to managing the consequences after the outbreak of war. Such acute international myopia serves neither global welfare nor efforts to design a better world for the twenty-first century. This article addresses some crucial connections. However compelling they may be, facts alone are seldom enough. Facts must be interpreted and decisions based on coherent analysis; only then can we consider the merits of alternative policy options-and choose among the best. By definition, conflict damages natural environments; ecological costs are always incurred; degradation leads to more degradation and invariably to environmental damage-and the vicious cycle can go on and on. Environ- mental damage in the Middle East following the Gulf war is among the most compelling cases to date.

1992-01-01T00:00:00Z