https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/18194 2026-04-11T08:58:10Z 2026-04-11T08:58:10Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35251 2019-04-09T15:45:39Z 1979-07-01T00:00:00Z

Summary : Photovoltaic International Plan Meeting, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 9, 1979.

1979-07-01T00:00:00Z Vogelsang, Ingo https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35250 2019-04-09T15:19:08Z 1979-05-01T00:00:00Z

The design of regulatory rules Vogelsang, Ingo

1979-05-01T00:00:00Z Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan Sorrell, Levi Anthony https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35248 2019-04-10T19:20:01Z 1979-06-01T00:00:00Z

Photovoltaics and the National Park Service : an institutional analysis Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Sorrell, Levi Anthony This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. The case reported here involves the acceptance of PV by the National Park Service. As part of the Department of the Interior, the NPS is an agency exemplifying the federal non- defense sector. A modified.organizational set model which concentrates on exchanges between and among organizational set elements, was used in this study. Though initially the inquiry from the Department of Energy to NPS to do a PV field test at a NPS site was considered the perturba- tion prompter, preliminary exploration showed an earlier perturbation-- the need for energy conservation. The differentiations which followed on this perturbation provided an envelope within which PV was subsequently considered and accepted. This envelope made an otherwise incompre- hensible innovation more comprehensible by its association with an ongoing routine of acceptance of energy conservation initiatives. The critical role of the NPS's Denver Service Center as an innovation mediator is described. The DSC serves such a function routinely for the NPS, a reality which greatly enhances the likelihood of acceptance of innovations disseminated through this institutional entity. On cover: Energy Laboratory Utility Systems Program.

1979-06-01T00:00:00Z McCleary, Janet https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35246 2019-04-11T10:15:36Z 1979-05-01T00:00:00Z

Photovoltaic technology : a review McCleary, Janet

1979-05-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35245 2019-04-09T18:54:49Z 1979-06-01T00:00:00Z

The political economy of the Middle East : changes and prospects since 1973 Adelman, Morris Albert

1979-06-01T00:00:00Z Owsley, Henry Furlow https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35244 2019-04-12T08:34:48Z 1979-05-01T00:00:00Z

The effect of increased national oil company sales on OPEC and the long run structure of the international petroleum market Owsley, Henry Furlow Originally presented as the author's thesis, M.S. in the M.I.T. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, 1979.

1979-05-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35243 2019-04-09T16:15:35Z 1979-04-01T00:00:00Z

Some evidence on differential inventory behavior in competitive and non-competitive market settings Hartman, Raymond S.

1979-04-01T00:00:00Z Smith, James Lee https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35242 2019-04-15T00:42:04Z 1979-03-01T00:00:00Z

A probabilistic model of oil discovery Smith, James Lee

1979-03-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35241 2019-04-15T00:42:04Z 1979-06-01T00:00:00Z

The clumsy cartel Adelman, Morris Albert

1979-06-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35240 2019-04-12T08:35:00Z 1979-05-01T00:00:00Z

Energy-income coefficients : their use and abuse Adelman, Morris Albert

1979-05-01T00:00:00Z Mason, Martha J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35239 2019-04-12T08:34:47Z 1979-10-01T00:00:00Z

Legislative mandates for energy model documentation and access : a historical analysis Mason, Martha J.

1979-10-01T00:00:00Z Mork, Knut Anton https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35238 2019-04-12T08:34:59Z 1979-09-01T00:00:00Z

Electricity demand in primary aluminum smelting Mork, Knut Anton The demand for electricity by primary aluminum smelters is estimated econometrically. Cross section data is used, including plant data for the U.S. and Norway and a national average for Japan. The data are sampled for two periods, one before and one after the 1973-74 energy price increase. The paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between electricity and an aggregate of all other inputs, assumed to exist. The estimated value of 0.1 is low, but significantly different from zero. Large price in- creases, such as the equalization of hydro and other power prices are found to result in substantial energy savings.

1979-09-01T00:00:00Z Dar, Vinod Krishna https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35237 2019-04-15T00:41:59Z 1979-04-01T00:00:00Z

A game theoretic analysis of the economics of deep ocean mining Dar, Vinod Krishna

1979-04-01T00:00:00Z Dailami, Mansoor https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35235 2019-04-12T08:34:59Z 1979-08-01T00:00:00Z

Financial influences on the behavior of oil exporters Dailami, Mansoor On cover: World Oil Project.

1979-08-01T00:00:00Z Dailami, Mansoor https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35232 2019-04-12T08:38:27Z 1979-02-01T00:00:00Z

Measuring the purchasing power of major currencies from OPEC's viewpoint Dailami, Mansoor

1979-02-01T00:00:00Z Swetky, Carole Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35231 2019-04-12T11:28:05Z 1979-03-01T00:00:00Z

Institutional analysis of housing production : a preliminary exploration Swetky, Carole; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic acceptance. It presents an initial inquiry into the housing production process, assuming a private sector perspective. Combined with other papers in this series, it forms a basis for institutional analysis of the DOE-HUD Solar Heating and Cooling demonstration program. In this paper the housing production process is characterized by six stages: * Building Concept -- the generation of an idea * Building Design -- establishing uses, designs, specifications * Building Finance -- price estimation and obtaining funds * Construction -- actual physical production * Service and Occupancy -- maintenance, management, repair, improvement, additions * Distribution -- sale, resale, refinance.c The final element, team selection, involves choosing persons and/or organizations appropriate to complete each aspect of housing production; it occurs through- out the process. Each of the stages is discussed, noting activities, actors, and constraints.

1979-03-01T00:00:00Z Jacoby, Henry D. Paddock, James Lester https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35228 2019-04-12T11:28:05Z 1979-11-01T00:00:00Z

Supply instability and oil market behavior Jacoby, Henry D.; Paddock, James Lester This paper analyzes the disruption in world oil markets which was triggered by the 1978-79 Iranian revolution. The resultant price rises are explored in the context of the behavior of the spot market and key OPEC countries. In particular, the economic and political roles of excess oil supply in the Persian Gulf nations are discussed. Conclusions for the likely future are presented, along with the implications for United States policy.

1979-11-01T00:00:00Z Furlong, Michael Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35225 2019-04-12T08:34:45Z 1979-03-01T00:00:00Z

Institutional analysis of research and socialization in housing : a preliminary exploration Furlong, Michael; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper is one of a series prepared under the sponsorship of DOE's Photovoltaic(PV) Program as part of the institutional analysis of housing. It considers research and socialization functions of housing. In addition to a brief discussion of the theory and methods of institutional analysis, the paper presents a brief historical review of building in the US, identi- fying an historic heritage for the independence of institutional entities in the building industry. A review of the building industry's response to innovation (including a brief description of the introduction of PVC piping) suggests that the industry may be characterized as fragmented and localized, with many actors, each responsive to the dispositions of all others (especially the ultimate source of motivation, the consumer and his/her purchasing power). The building industry is structured such that no single actor predominates, but that any or several may be the source of either facilitation or obstruction of innovation. Overcoming economic and technological constraints is not enough. Given the normative importance of housing, anything identified as "new and different" will meet resistance, while innovations labelled as providing "the same with less uncertainty" will find a more willing audience.

1979-03-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35223 2019-04-12T08:34:50Z 1979-04-01T00:00:00Z

Uncertainty and the pricing of exhaustible resources Pindyck, Robert S. Demand and reserve uncertainty are included in a simple model of an exhaustible resource market by allowing the demand function and the reserve level to fluctuate via continuous-time stochastic processes. Thus, producers always know current demand and reserves, but do not know what demand and reserves will be in the future. We show that demand uncertainty has no effect on the expected dynamics of market price, while reserve uncertainty shifts the expected rate of change of price only if extraction costs are nonlinear in reserves. However if the demand function is nonlinear, both demand and reserve uncertainty affect the dynamics of production, whatever the character of extraction costs. The model is also extended to include exploration, first as a means of reducing uncertainty, and second as a means of accumulating reserves, with uncertainty over the future response of discoveries to exploratory effort.

1979-04-01T00:00:00Z Kalish, Shlomo Lilien, Gary Louis https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35220 2019-04-11T06:58:44Z 1979-10-01T00:00:00Z

Models of new product diffusion : current status and research agenda Kalish, Shlomo; Lilien, Gary Louis Diffusion models, mathematical attempts to describe the growth patterns of new products and relate them to variables such as price and population characteristics, have seen major development trends in the past few years. This paper reviews that progress in order to isolate those areas most likely to be fruitful for further development. The paper first reviews some of the behavioral underpinnings of diffusion models: the phenomena being modeled. Next, the major explicit form models are reviewed and classified according to whether they have market-controls or not and according to the number of stages they explicitly consider. These models are related to larger-scale simulation models (especially in the solar energy area) that use explicit-form models as building blocks. The paper concludes with a discussion of some important advances that still need to be made in this important and rapidly-growing area.

1979-10-01T00:00:00Z McDaniel, Patricia Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35219 2019-04-15T00:41:58Z 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z

Institutional analysis of governmental involvement in housing : a preliminary exploration McDaniel, Patricia; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper, one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance, provides a preliminary exploration of governmental acitvities in the housing sector. It is based on theoretical formulations and utilizes methods developed in an earlier paper in this series. The housing process is examined in terms of seven institutional functions -- finance, research, political, regulation, production, service, and socialization -- from a governmental perspective. It is concluded that the federal government is most active in providing for finance, research, and political functions. State and local governments tend to perform the bulk of the regulation functions, though recent trends show increased federal involvement in large-scale regulation, through such mechanisms as the Environmental Impact Statement. The production, service, and socialization functions tend to be performed as a result of the direct realization of the first four.

1979-01-01T00:00:00Z MIT Energy Lab https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35216 2019-04-12T08:34:50Z 1979-11-01T00:00:00Z

Papers presented at a Conference on Energy Prices, Inflation and Economic Activity, November 7-9, 1979. MIT Energy Lab

1979-11-01T00:00:00Z Reamer, Andrew Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan Heim, Steven https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35214 2019-04-12T08:34:58Z 1979-02-01T00:00:00Z

Institutional analysis of energy provision in housing : a preliminary exploration Reamer, Andrew; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Heim, Steven This paper, one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance, provides preliminary exploration of the energy industry in relation to energy provision in the residential sector. It is based on theoretical formulations and utilizes methods of institutional analysis developed in an earlier paper in this series. Seven institutional functions -- production, financing, regulation, political, research, service and socialization -- are reviewed as to the manner in which they are performed in the energy industry. The structure of the energy industry is described, as is the regulatory web within which its financial decisions are made and its operations conducted. The persistent and increasing activity of all levels of government in determining the practices of the energy industry is dis- cussed. The research section identifies recent efforts to develop alternative energy sources. The services section especially emphasizes the delivery of energy to residences, while the discussion of the social- ization function highlights the ways in which attitudes on energy availability and use are developed.

1979-02-01T00:00:00Z Hendrickson, Ellen Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35211 2019-04-15T00:42:02Z 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z

Institutional analysis of daytime radio : an overview of the broadcast industry Hendrickson, Ellen; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan One of a series of papers as part of the institutional analysis of acceptance of photovoltaic (PV) energy, this paper presents an exploration of the radio broadcasting sector in the US. Organized according to the seven functions fulfilled by institutions -- political, regulatory, socialization, production, financial, research,and service -- the paper shows that the radio broadcasting industry is strongly focused and centralized at the federal level in terms of the political and regulatory functions. The other strong force influencing the nature of the industry is the mutual dependency between radio stations and advertisers. Subsequent papers in this series will complete the institutional analysis of a field test of PV in the daytime radio area.

1979-01-01T00:00:00Z Tabors, Richard D https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35210 2019-04-11T10:15:37Z 1979-06-01T00:00:00Z

Application of sector and location specific models of the "worth" of renewable energy technologies Tabors, Richard D Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind hold the potential for providing a significant portion of the U.S. energy requirements in the decades ahead. Unlike other energy sources their availability is determined by nonrandom events beyond the control of the consumer. In addition, macro-, meso-, and microclimatic conditions play a major role in determining the worth of such renewable energy sources to their owners. The worth of these new technologies will be a function of owner, location, and application as well as the traditional capital and operating cost, i.e., their worth to an owner in the southwest will be different form that to an owner in the northeast or the southeast. Dealing with energy sources, with geographic and sectorally specific energy values and with energy technologies with which we have little or no experience in the marketplace has created a set of challenges in analysis and modeling of these new technologies in competition with traditional energy technologies and with other emerging technologies. This paper will look at one simulation methodology for estimating the worth of renewable energy systems providing electricity, such as wind or solar photovoltaic power systems, and will discuss the interaction between such systems and traditional electric utilities with which they may or may not be integrated, be owned or be co-located. The paper concludes with a discussion of the issues associated with the incorporation of econometric techniques into such a simulation modeling structure.

1979-06-01T00:00:00Z Wong, Cecilia Sau Yen https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35209 2019-04-15T00:42:02Z 1978-06-01T00:00:00Z

An approach to parameter sensitivity analyses in model assessment Wong, Cecilia Sau Yen

1978-06-01T00:00:00Z Weiss, Malcolm A. Ball, Benjamin Calhoun Barbera, Robert J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35205 2019-04-12T08:34:49Z 1979-06-01T00:00:00Z

Shale oil : potential economies of large-scale production, preliminary phase Weiss, Malcolm A.; Ball, Benjamin Calhoun; Barbera, Robert J. Producing shale oil on a large scale is one of the possible alternatives for reducing dependence of the United States on imported petroleum. Industry is not producing shale oil on a commercial scale now because costs are too high even though industry dissatisfaction is most frequently expressed about "non-economic" barriers: innumerable permits, changing environmental regulations, lease limitations, water rights conflicts, legal challenges, and so on. The overall purpose of this study is to estimate whether improved technology might significantly reduce unit costs for production of shale oil in a planned large-scale industry as contrasted to the case usually contemplated: a small industry evolving slowly on a project-by-project basis. In this preliminary phase of the study, we collected published data on the costs of present shale oil technology and adjusted them to common conditions; these data were assembled to help identify the best targets for cost reduction through improved large-scale technology They show that the total cost of producing upgraded shale oil (i.e. shale oil accpetable as a feed to a petroleum refinery) by surface retorting ranges from about $18 to $28/barrel in late '78 dollars with a 20% chance that the costs would be lower than and 20% higher than that range. The probability distribution reflects our assumptions about ranges of shale richness, process performance, rate of return, and other factors that seem likely in a total industry portfolio of projects. About 40% of the total median cost is attributable to retorting, 20% to upgrading, and the remaining 40% to resource acquisition, mining, crushing, and spent shale disposal and revegetation. Capital charges account for about 70% of the median total cost and operating costs for the other 30%. There is a reasonable chance that modified in-situ processes (like Occidental's) may be able to produce shale oil more cheaply than surface retorting, but no reliable cost data have been published; in 1978, DOE estimated a saving of roughly $5/B for in-situ. Because the total costs of shale oil are spread over many steps in the production process, improvements in most or all of those steps are required if we seek a significant reduction in total cost. A June 1979 workshop of industry experts was held to help us identify possible cost-reduction technologies. Examples of the improved large-scale technologies proposed (for further evaluation) to the workshop were: - Instead of hydrotreating raw shale oil to make syncrude capable of being refined conventionally, rebalance all of a refinery's processes (or develop new catalysts/processes less sensitive to feed nitrogen) to accommodate shale oil feed -- a change analogous to a shift from sweet crude to sour crude. - Instead of refining at or near the retort site, use heated pipelines to move raw shale oil to existing major refining areas. - Instead of operating individual mines, open-pit mine all or much of the Piceance Creek Basin. - Instead of building individual retorts, develop new methods for mass production of hundreds of retorts.

1979-06-01T00:00:00Z Werth, Alix https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35203 2019-04-09T17:28:21Z 1978-06-01T00:00:00Z

Residential demand for electricity and gas in the short run : an econometric analysis Werth, Alix Short-run residential demand equations for electricity and gas are estimated in this study. Short-run demand depends on the appliance stock in existence. Use of the appliance stock is a function of the price of fuel, income, and the weather. The major difference between this study and others explicitly using appliance stock data is that appliances are not aggregated into a single stock measure. Demand consists of the sum of the individual demands for energy for each fuel-burning appliance type. Consequently, different price, income, and weather elasticities are estimated for each use of the fuels. The data consist of annual observations for each state for the years 1960-1975. Most of the appliance stock data were developed by Data Resources, Inc. These are supplemented by appliance data developed for use in this study. Two different methods of pooling time-series and cross-section data, the random and fixed effects models, are used, and a specification test is performed to test for consistency of the random effects model estimates. The results are somewhat mixed. However, they do suggest directions for further research. Fairly reasonable estimates in terms of average energy consumption for each type of appliance are obtained. The aggregate price and income elasticities fall in the range found in previous work. Price elasticities appear to vary among the demands for fuel for different end uses, but the differences are not statistically significant. Income elasticities for the individual fuel uses are disappointing; they are often of the wrong sign and magnitude. The most reasonable results are obtained for the appliances which consume the most fuel. Further work most likely would benefit from aggregation of the small appliances, leaving only for estimation the coefficients of demand for the major users of fuel and the residual aggregate appliance stock. Prepared under Dept. of Energy contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, Task order no. 37.

1978-06-01T00:00:00Z Neff, Thomas L. Jacoby, Henry D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35202 2019-04-11T10:15:37Z 1979-02-01T00:00:00Z

Supply assurance in the nuclear fuel cycle Neff, Thomas L.; Jacoby, Henry D. The economic, technical and political issues which bear on the security of nuclear fuel supply internationally are addressed. The structure of international markets for nuclear fuel is delineated; this includes an analysis of the political constraints on fuel availability, especially the connection to supplier nonproliferation policies. The historical development of nuclear fuel assurance problems is explored and an assessment is made of future trends in supply and demand and in the political context in which fuel trade will take place in the future. Finally, key events and policies which will affect future assurance are identified. Errata sheet inserted.

1979-02-01T00:00:00Z Parker, Barbara Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35201 2019-04-11T06:58:47Z 1979-02-01T00:00:00Z

Institutional analysis of standard setting in the United States : a preliminary exploration Parker, Barbara; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper, one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance, discusses standards and the standard setting process in the United States. Standards, and the manner in which standards are established, can play a significant role in facilitating or impeding the acceptance of solar technologies. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of standards for those concerned with ensuring the timely and appropriate acceptance of needed new energy sources in diverse economic and geographic sectors. The paper has three sections. The first provides a conceptual framework for understanding standards. The second section discusses a number of approaches for categorizing standards. Finally, the third section identifies the processes employed and the persons and organizations involved in the standards development process in the US.

1979-02-01T00:00:00Z Vogelsang, Ingo https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35199 2019-04-12T08:34:52Z 1979-06-01T00:00:00Z

Between market supply and vertical integration : the role of long-term contracts in coal trade Vogelsang, Ingo

1979-06-01T00:00:00Z Heide, Ross J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35196 2019-04-09T18:30:08Z 1978-07-01T00:00:00Z

Log-linear models of petroleum product demand : an international study Heide, Ross J.

1978-07-01T00:00:00Z Vogelsang, Ingo Neuefeind, Wilhelm https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35195 2019-04-12T12:55:11Z 1979-02-01T00:00:00Z

The impact of uncertainty on the effect of rate of return regulation remains highly uncertain Vogelsang, Ingo; Neuefeind, Wilhelm

1979-02-01T00:00:00Z Levhari, David https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35192 2019-04-12T08:34:56Z 1979-10-01T00:00:00Z

The pricing of durable exhaustible resources Levhari, David

1979-10-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert Paddock, James Lester https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35190 2019-04-09T17:42:26Z 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z

An aggregate model of petroleum production capacity and supply forecasting Adelman, Morris Albert; Paddock, James Lester This paper presents a complete discussion and documentation of the M.I.T. World Oil Project Aggregate Supply Model. First, the theoretical development and methodology are presented. The relationships between geologic and economic characteristics are analyzed and a system of equations representing the inertial process model are derived. Next, the construction of the data is described and the data, by country segment, is presented in detail. Methods of bridging the many gaps in the data are discussed. Finally, the simulation forecasts of the model are presented through 1990. *This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DAR 78-19044. However, any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF. The work also is supported by the M.I.T. Center for Energy Policy Research. We wish to thank the following individuals for their comments on earlier drafts: P. Eckbo, H. Jacoby, R. Pindyck, J. Smith, and M. Zimmerman. Also, for research assistance and help in data analysis we thank J. Carson, W. Christian, D. McDonald, H. Owsley, G. Ward, and, in particular, A. Sterling. For editing and typing we are grateful to S. Mehta and A. Sanderson.

1979-01-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond Steve Werth, Alix https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35187 2019-04-12T08:34:54Z 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z

Short-run residential demand for fuels: a disaggregated model Hartman, Raymond Steve; Werth, Alix

1979-01-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35186 2019-04-12T12:55:14Z 1979-02-01T00:00:00Z

A generalized logit formulation of individual choice Hartman, Raymond S. Probability models of individual choice consist of two components: a formulation of random utility and the stochastic specification of that utility. Usually separable direct random utility is assumed. With Weibull error terms, logit analysis results. However, logit analysis suffers from the "assumed" "independence of irrelevant alternatives". It is the contention of this paper that these difficulties result from the usual restrictive utility formulation. A more general indirect random utility formulation is introduced. Estimates of the resulting generalized logit and the more restrictive logit models are presented. Hypothesis testing is reported which rejects the restrictive utility formulations which dominate the literature.

1979-02-01T00:00:00Z Majd, Saman https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35183 2019-04-11T06:58:46Z 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z

A financial analysis of selected synthetic fuel technologies Majd, Saman

1979-01-01T00:00:00Z Ball., Benjamin Calhoun Barbera, Robert J. Weiss, Malcolm A. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35181 2019-04-11T06:58:44Z 1979-07-01T00:00:00Z

Shale oil : potential economies of large-scale production, workshop phase Ball., Benjamin Calhoun; Barbera, Robert J.; Weiss, Malcolm A. A workshop on shale oil, sponsored by M.I.T., was held on June 4-5, 1979. The purpose of the workshop was to identify technological opportunities for significant reduction in the cost of producing shale oil on a large scale (at least 2 million barrels per day). Large-scale production of shale oil is of current interest as one of the alternatives for reducing imports of petroleum. The workshop participants included 11 industry and 9 M.I.T. people expert in technologies or approaches potentially applicable to shale oil. The participants reached general consensus on three major conclusions: - Large-scale production of shale oil would make possible a reduction of cost through new technological applications and innovations. There are opportunities for new technology in individual mining, retorting, and upgrading steps. Perhaps more important, there are also opportunities for combinations of technology which would make best use of various processing methods, the natural resources in place, economies of scale, the mix of products, etc. - A shale oil industry must exist and must be producing shale oil on a meaningful scale in order to develop these improved technologies most effectively. This is particularly true for those technologies whose impact is on the whole system (such as combinations of technology) rather than on individual process steps. If industry growth is not accelerated, it will be a long time before shale oil can contribute significantly to easing U.S. energy problems, and current technical, economic, and environmental uncertainties will remain uncertainties. - Creating a large-scale shale oil industry soon would require capital, human skills, and materials well beyond the capacity of one company or a small group of companies. Those needs, plus some unique characteristics of the shale land (its federal ownership, and its concentration with consequent potential for heavy local impact on population and envrionment), suggest the desirability of a new structure to manage U.S. shale resources in the common interest. That structure would include some type of joint participation by the private sector, the public, and government (federal, state, and local) to ensure getting contributions and cooperation of all affected groups, and to best meet all their needs.

1979-07-01T00:00:00Z Vogelsang, Ingo https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35178 2019-04-15T00:41:56Z 1979-06-01T00:00:00Z

Coal markets and hierarchies Vogelsang, Ingo In "Markets and Hierarchies" (1975) Oliver Williamson has developed a heuristic framework (Organization Failures Framework = OFF) to attack the issue of institutional borderlines between markets and firms. Below we discuss this concept and apply it to local coal markets. Differences in larger domestic and international coal markets then cast some doubts on the practical usefulness of the approach. Errata sheet inserted.

1979-06-01T00:00:00Z Joskow, Paul L. Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35176 2019-04-09T17:23:41Z 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z

Should the government subsidize non-conventional energy supplies? Joskow, Paul L.; Pindyck, Robert S.

1979-01-01T00:00:00Z Bottaro, Drew https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35171 2019-04-09T18:34:50Z 1979-12-01T00:00:00Z

Comments on proposed rulemaking concerning electric rates for solar users Bottaro, Drew Energy Laboratory Utility Systems Program.

1979-12-01T00:00:00Z Helliwell, John F. Cox, Alan J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35170 2019-04-11T03:46:17Z 1979-02-01T00:00:00Z

Simulation analysis of energy production in the B. C. pulp and paper industry Helliwell, John F.; Cox, Alan J. ABSTRACT This paper describes a dynamic simulation model of energy production and use by pulp and paper mills. The model can be used to assess the costs and benefits of the use of different proportions of wood waste (referred to as 'hog fuel') and fossil fuels to generate process steam and electricity, with the costs and benefits measured from several points of view, principally those of the mill management and of the economy as a whole. Using either point of view, the model has been fitted to the eighteen major pulp and paper mills in British Columbia, and used to assess the consequences of the size and nature of optimal hog fuel projects. Some results are reported in this paper and references are given to other papers containing more complete results of various aspects of the research project. INTRODUCTION Whenever there are big changes in technology or relative prices, many of the standard rules of thumb for optimal choices fall apart, and many new alternatives have to be considered in a systematic way. This offers great scope for the design and use of simulation models that capture the key elements of an industrial process and expose the key alternatives for This paper was presented to the conference on Simulation Modelling and Decision in Energy Systems, held in Montreal in June, 1978 and sponsored by the International Association of Science and Technology for Development. It represents early results of work also reported in [1], [2], [3] and [4]. While Helliwell is a continuing member of U.B.C.'s Department of Economics, Cox is currently at M.I.T.'s Energy Laboratory Cambridge, Mass.

1979-02-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond Steve https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35165 2019-04-12T08:38:00Z 1979-04-01T00:00:00Z

Frontiers in energy demand modeling Hartman, Raymond Steve

1979-04-01T00:00:00Z Siczewicz, Peter John Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35158 2019-04-12T08:38:02Z 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z

Institutional analysis of the National Park Service : |b a preliminary exploration Siczewicz, Peter John; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper is one of a series resulting from the institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. It reports the results of an initial exploration of the federal non-defense arena. This exploration was undertaken in connection with a PV field test at the Natural Bridges National Monument in Utah. This field test is a collaborative venture of the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Park Service (NPS). As the procuring agency, NPS is the focus for the paper, serving as an example of institutional action in the federal non-defense arena. Like others in this arena, NPS is involved in the legislative process, as well as program implementati;on. The primary mission of the National Park Service is to make federally-owned land available to the public in a manner which enhances the use and enjoyment ;.of natural and historic resource. NPS has nearly 300 operating units. It is organized by regions, and has two service centers (the larger of which is in Denver) which provide a variety of technical and support services to the operating units. The most important operating units are national parks, monuments and historic sites. Procurements contributing to program activities are guided by federal and agency regulation. One regulation limits procurements to proven technologies, which constitutes a formal barrier to innovation acceptance.

1979-01-01T00:00:00Z Smith, James Lee https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35156 2019-04-11T09:50:22Z 1980-03-01T00:00:00Z

Equilibrium patterns of competition in OCS lease sales Smith, James Lee An equilibrium model of bidding behavior is developed that accounts for observed fluctuations in the degree of competition to acquire offshore petroleum leases. As one might expect, such fluctuations are related to the heterogeneity of geological prospects that are offered for sale, with a relatively high degree of competition to acquire tracts of the highest quality. The equilibrium configuration of bids is also shown to reflect structural characteristics, such as capital market constraints, that may restrict competition in the lease auction. Empirical evidence is presented which tends to confirm our general theory of bidding equilibria, but which contradicts the popular notion that capital constraints have restricted competition in OCS lease sales. Policy implications are discussed in the concluding section.

1980-03-01T00:00:00Z Berndt, Ernst R. Fuss, Melvyn A. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35153 2019-04-10T20:42:04Z 1981-09-01T00:00:00Z

Productivity measurement using capital asset valuation to adjust for variations in utilization Berndt, Ernst R.; Fuss, Melvyn A. Although a great deal of empirical research on productivity measurement has taken place in the last decade, one issue remaining particularly controversial and decisive is the manner by which one adjusts the productivity residual for variations in capital and capacity utilization. In this paper we use the Marshallian framework of a short run production or cost function with certain inputs quasi-fixed to provide a theoretical basis for accounting for variations in utilization. The theoretical model implies that the value of services from stocks of quasi-fixed inputs should be altered rather than their quantity. This represents a departure from previous procedures that have adjusted the quantity of capital services for variations in utilization. In the empirical illustration, we employ Tobin's q to measure the shadow value of capital, and find that for the U.S. manufacturing sector, we can attribute 25% of the traditionally measured decline in productivity growth during 1973-77 to a decline in capacity utilization. Also released as Working Paper No. 8125, Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto. *An earlier version was presented at the econometric Society Summer Meetings, San Diego, California, June 24-27, 1981.

1981-09-01T00:00:00Z Barouch, Eytan Kaufman, Gordon Mayer https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35148 2019-04-09T17:18:56Z 1979-02-01T00:00:00Z

Detection of geologic anomalies by grid line search Barouch, Eytan; Kaufman, Gordon Mayer

1979-02-01T00:00:00Z Bohn, Roger E. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35143 2019-04-11T09:50:11Z 1980-02-01T00:00:00Z

Industrial response to spot electricity prices: some empirical evidence Bohn, Roger E. Time of day prices for electricity are usually preferable to constant rates, as the true cost of generating energy varies over the course of a day. But time of day rates are still inefficient, because prices do not change in step with day by day random fluctuations in actual generating costs. Spot prices, which change every five minutes, can avoid this inefficiency by tracking actual marginal cost. This paper empirically estimates the ability of industrial customers to respond to rapidly varying prices. The conclusion is that some customers will be able to react quickly to such prices. Because the estimates were made from a rate structure which is not a full spot pricing system, the magnitude of customer response remains problematic. Also, it appears that the utility in questions could make a minor change to its rate structure which would help both it and its customers.

1980-02-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond Steve https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35142 2019-04-11T09:50:20Z 1980-07-01T00:00:00Z

A note on the use of aggregate data in individual choice models : discrete consumer choice among alternative fuels for residential appliances Hartman, Raymond Steve

1980-07-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond Steve https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35140 2019-04-10T16:53:25Z 1980-05-01T00:00:00Z

An analysis of Department of Energy residential appliance efficiency standards Hartman, Raymond Steve

1980-05-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/35138 2019-04-09T18:06:57Z 1980-05-01T00:00:00Z

The incorporation of solar photovoltaics into a model of residential energy demand Hartman, Raymond S.

1980-05-01T00:00:00Z Kaufman, Gordon Mayer Runggaldier, W. Livne, Zvi A. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32992 2019-04-09T16:58:09Z 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z

Predicting the time rate of supply from a petroleum play Kaufman, Gordon Mayer; Runggaldier, W.; Livne, Zvi A.

1979-01-01T00:00:00Z Wheatley, Nancy J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32991 2019-04-10T09:58:56Z 1980-03-01T00:00:00Z

Distribution channels for residential photovoltaic systems Wheatley, Nancy J.

1980-03-01T00:00:00Z Smith, James Lee https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32989 2019-04-10T09:58:45Z 1980-04-01T00:00:00Z

Non-aggressive bidding behavior and the "winner's curse" Smith, James Lee Previous authors have noted a curious result that arises in the context of sealed-bid auctions: in certain situations it is in the bidder's interest to respond non-aggressively to increased competition. We consider a decision-theoretic formulation of the bidder's problem, and derive necessary conditions for the choice of a non-aggressive bidding strategy. The resulting conditions relate closely to a phenomenon that has been described rather loosely by bidding practitioners as the "winner's curse". In the course of this paper we develop a specific definition of the winner's curse, and demonstrate how it affects the firm's competitive behavior.

1980-04-01T00:00:00Z Marlay, Robert C. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31332 2019-04-12T07:24:36Z 1978-01-31T00:00:00Z

A comparative analysis of fuel price forecasts Marlay, Robert C. A comparative analysis of four sets of fuel price forecasts is made for each of the four primary energy sources: coal, oil, natural gas and uranium. These forecasts, together with historical data over the period from 1960 to 1977, are presented in graphical and tabular form to the year 2000. A graphical summary is then made of a synthesized forecast considered most likely for each fuel, plotted in common units of 1977 cents per million BTU, showing relative trends among competing energy forms.

1978-01-31T00:00:00Z Jones, William J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31330 2019-04-12T08:25:52Z 1978-12-01T00:00:00Z

Macro-engineering : how to decide? Jones, William J.

1978-12-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31329 2019-04-12T08:25:52Z 1978-12-01T00:00:00Z

Some long-term problems in OPEC oil pricing Pindyck, Robert S.

1978-12-01T00:00:00Z Dailami, Mansoor https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31328 2019-04-12T07:24:36Z 1978-07-01T00:00:00Z

The determination and control of money supply in an oil exporting country : the Iranian experience Dailami, Mansoor Revised Feb. 1979

1978-07-01T00:00:00Z Dailami, Mansoor https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31326 2019-04-12T07:24:38Z 1978-10-01T00:00:00Z

The choice of an optimal currency for denominating the price of oil Dailami, Mansoor

1978-10-01T00:00:00Z Energy Laboratory https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31324 2019-04-12T08:25:50Z 1978-10-01T00:00:00Z

How much do you know about energy? : a quiz from the Energy Lab Energy Laboratory

1978-10-01T00:00:00Z Mork, Knut Anton Flavin, Marjorie Pauls, Barbara Dianne https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31323 2019-04-12T08:25:48Z 1978-10-01T00:00:00Z

A user's guide to the three sector quarterly macro data base Mork, Knut Anton; Flavin, Marjorie; Pauls, Barbara Dianne

1978-10-01T00:00:00Z Bottaro, Drew https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31320 2019-04-12T07:24:37Z 1978-10-01T00:00:00Z

The purpose and role of product standards in the commercialization of new energy technologies : a preliminary analysis Bottaro, Drew This paper discusses the role of product standards in a commercialization program. The usefulness of standards is explained as arising from the existence of transaction costs and other market failures in the operation of markets, and the effects of standards upon market operation are broadly discussed. The role of standards in a commercialization program is then explored and is seen as justified by the existence of market failures and the lack of suitable options other than standards available for remedying certain particulars of the situation. A description of the voluntary standards system follows to show how its use in a commercialization program may modify the governmental role.

1978-10-01T00:00:00Z Gruhl, Jim Gruhl, N. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31318 2019-04-12T08:25:48Z 1978-07-01T00:00:00Z

Methods and examples of model validation : an annotated bibliography Gruhl, Jim; Gruhl, N.

1978-07-01T00:00:00Z Berndt, Ernst R. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31317 2019-04-12T08:25:47Z 1978-08-01T00:00:00Z

The demand for electricity: comment and further results Berndt, Ernst R.

1978-08-01T00:00:00Z Vogelsang, Ingo Finsinger, Jörg https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31315 2019-04-12T07:24:34Z 1978-08-01T00:00:00Z

A regulatory adjustment process for optimal pricing by multiproduct monopoly firms Vogelsang, Ingo; Finsinger, Jörg This paper describes an incentive mechanism that is shown to enforce the use of Ramsey prices by multiproduct monopolies. The constraint given is simple. It limits information requirements on the regulatory agency to bookkeeping data of the firm. Its implementation could be easily controlled by outside courts or auditors. The process, therefore, makes use of invisible hand properties shifting the workload of welfare optimization from the regulatory agency to the regulated firm. This may lead to the ironical conclusion that regulatory commissions should fire their economists. It, however, becomes both profitable and socially beneficial for the regulated firms to employ them. *University of Bonn and M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, Cambridge, Mass.; University of Bonn and International Institute of Management, Berlin, respectively. We owe thanks to various readers of a previous version. Truman Bewley, Peter Diamond, Jonathan Goodman, Ray Hartman, Martin Hellwig, Roger Sherman, Christian von Weizs'acker and an anonymous referee will find that their suggestions have left traces in this paper.

1978-08-01T00:00:00Z White, David Edwin https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31314 2019-04-12T08:25:45Z 1978-07-01T00:00:00Z

Extensions and revisions of the MIT regional electricity model White, David Edwin

1978-07-01T00:00:00Z Mork, Knut Anton https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31309 2019-04-12T08:37:07Z 1978-08-01T00:00:00Z

The energy price shock and the 1974-75 recession Mork, Knut Anton

1978-08-01T00:00:00Z Mork, Knut Anton. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31308 2019-04-11T04:57:47Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

Why are prices so rigid? Mork, Knut Anton. Based in part on the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Economics, 1977.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert. Jacoby, Henry D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31305 2019-04-12T08:37:11Z 1978-05-01T00:00:00Z

Oil gaps, prices and economic growth Adelman, Morris Albert.; Jacoby, Henry D. M.I.T. World Oil Project.

1978-05-01T00:00:00Z Carson, Jacqueline https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31304 2019-04-10T19:56:04Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

A user's guide to the World Oil Project demand data base Carson, Jacqueline

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Tabors, Richard D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31300 2019-04-12T08:37:10Z 1978-05-01T00:00:00Z

Photovoltaic power systems : review of current market studies : methodology for long term demand projection Tabors, Richard D.

1978-05-01T00:00:00Z Tabors, Richard D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31299 2019-04-11T04:57:46Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

The economics of water lifting for small scale irrigation in the third world: |b traditional and photovoltaic technologies Tabors, Richard D.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Golay, Michael Warren. Saragossi, Isi Isaac. Willefert, Jean-Marc. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31297 2019-04-09T17:56:32Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Comparative analysis of United States and French nuclear power plant siting and construction regulatory policies and their economic consequences Golay, Michael Warren.; Saragossi, Isi Isaac.; Willefert, Jean-Marc. Despite the substantial commitments of time and money which are devoted to the nuclear power plant siting process, the effectiveness of the system in providing a balanced evaluation of the technical, environmental and public interest considerations is periodically questioned. Until now, all improvements in the siting process have introduced increased complexity and delays. In order to approach this problem from a new point of view, it is interesting to evaluate U.S. siting and licensing processes in contrast with corresponding foreign policies. This work compares the American and French policies. Initially, the economic structures, procedures and regulations in both countries that determine the siting policies and procedures for nuclear power plants are examined. Then, the results of a survey of American utilities' practices concerning their licensing histories and delays that have affected U.S. nuclear power reactors since 1965 are analyzed. It is found that although the French experience is more limited than the American one, French practices emphasize an attempt to shift consideration of major design issues in the early stages of the construction permit process, before major on-site construction commitments are made. Other important differences are that the French process is cooperative and flexible while the American process is adverserial, legalistic and rigid; and the French process allows for very little public participation or review of regulatory decisions while the American process allows relatively easy participation of public and non-federal agencies in the licensing process and has the possibility for review of regulatory decisions at several administrative and judicial levels. Power station construction and operation delays are common in the United States experience and rare in the French experience.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Light Water Reactor Study Group. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31295 2019-04-12T08:37:05Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

ERDA's role in the development and acceptance of light water reactors Light Water Reactor Study Group.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Berndt, Ernst R. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31294 2019-04-12T08:25:47Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

Aggregate energy, efficiency and productivity measurement Berndt, Ernst R.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Zimmerman, Martin B. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31293 2019-04-11T04:57:42Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Estimating a policy model of U.S. coal supply Zimmerman, Martin B.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Berndt, Ernst R. Wood, David O. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31291 2019-04-11T04:57:41Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Engineering and econometric approaches to industrial energy conservation and capital formation : a reconciliation Berndt, Ernst R.; Wood, David O.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Mork, Knut Anton https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31290 2019-04-11T04:57:45Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

The inflationary impact of higher energy prices 1973-1975 Mork, Knut Anton

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Agmon, Tamir Lessard, Donald R. Paddock, James Lester https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31289 2019-04-12T08:37:04Z 1977-09-01T00:00:00Z

Financial markets and the adjustment to higher oil prices Agmon, Tamir; Lessard, Donald R.; Paddock, James Lester

1977-09-01T00:00:00Z Boshier, John F. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31288 2019-04-12T07:24:35Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

The effectiveness of government initiatives in energy conservation Boshier, John F. Energy policy in the US is characterized by two motivations: to stem the flow of currency to the oil producing nations, and to prevent energy prices rising as much as it is now being feared they will. Conservation has been seized upon as a principal initiative, and the two most important components of present policy are the investment tax credit and energy taxes. The investment tax credit is aimed toward improving the way energy is used without raising the price. It lowers the price of capital relative to energy for applications where there is a tradeoff. But this measure is working against the current of wider taxation measures which stimulate energy growth through lowering the price of capital and raising the price of labor, thus encouraging investment in energy intensive equipment to substitute for labor. The conservation investment tax credit does not reverse this trend. Nor does it have a significant effect in raising the rate of return on an investment in conservation, which is dominated by the energy savings and the expected inflation in energy prices. In summary, it appears that the tax credit will have difficulty achieving the goals set for it. An encouragement of activities that conserve or substitute for energy by promoting employment rather than extra capital investment is necessary. In a society, which has been built on low cost energy, taxation measures which increase the price of energy are both unpopular and disruptive. But higher prices are inevitable and the rise is likely to be rapid after 1985. Recession both in the US and throughout the world is very likely. A policy of phasing in higher prices through taxes will enable the economic and social effects to be monitored and will encourage the necessary new technologies.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31287 2019-04-11T04:57:40Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Producers, consumers, and multinationals : problems in analyzing a non-competitive market Adelman, Morris Albert A paper written two years ago gave a general analysis of the current world oil market, indicating why the price had nothing to do with real scarcity, but was set by a monopoly both vulnerable and very strong. The purpose is now t analyze the market more closely, with a view to making some predictions about future prices. Non-competitive markets are notoriously hard to analyze, because we have no precise theory of small-group actions. Furthermore, the current cartel2 is very recent, and its great successes since the 1970 Libyan negotiations have been and still are a learning process. But we can at least identify the principal factors, and eliminate irrelevant or wrong hypotheses.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond Steve. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31284 2019-04-10T16:53:32Z 1977-10-01T00:00:00Z

An oligopolistic pricing model of the U.S. copper industry : a probability model approach Hartman, Raymond Steve.

1977-10-01T00:00:00Z Lorang, Philip Alphonse Linden, Lawrence Howard. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31283 2019-04-12T08:37:03Z 1977-10-01T00:00:00Z

Automobile safety regulation : technological change and regulatory process Lorang, Philip Alphonse; Linden, Lawrence Howard. This report examines the history of automobile safety regulation since 1966, viewed as an attempt to substitute public decisions on the design of new automobiles for private decisions. The focus of the examination is on the problems which confront regulators in the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in their attempt to affect the design and performance of automobiles and on the effect regulation has actually had on automotive technology. Congress gave the NHTSA two ways of bringing about changes in the design and performance of automobiles. The NHTSA may set mandatory performance standards for automobiles and may conduct research and development on new automobile safety technology. Congress did not set a programmed goal that was to be achieved through these methods, however. Instead, the NHTSA must continually decide in an ad hoc fashion the desirability of particular changes in the attributes of new cars. Those that it finds desirable must be forced into practice through standards. The purpose of the agency's R&D is to make possible for the first time additional changes in vehicle attributes which the agency may then choose to force into practice as well. Several inherent problems in developing the technical requirements in proposals for new standards and in judging the desirability of proposals have not been fully resolved by the NHTSA. They have had a detrimental effect on the number and quality of standards promulgated since the initial set. The agency's efforts in developing new technology have also faced problems and have so far not contributed to its standards. In order for regulatory action to be taken, policy decisions must be made to compensate for uncertainties in predictions of the impacts of. proposed standards. Policy decisions must also be made as to the desirable balance between reductions in traffic risks and increased costs. The uncertainties could be reduced if more reliance were placed on large-scale experimental testing of contemplated safety modifications in actual use. The policy choices that would remain, of both types, could be improved if they were recognized as such and the process for making them opened up to greater outside inspection and participation.

1977-10-01T00:00:00Z Hausman, Jerry A. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31282 2019-04-12T07:24:33Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

Consumer choice of durables and energy demand Hausman, Jerry A.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Houghton, John C. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31280 2019-04-12T08:37:02Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

The incomplete means estimation procedure applied to flood frequency analysis Houghton, John C.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Houghton, John C. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31278 2019-04-12T08:37:01Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Birth of a parent : the Wakeby distribution for modeling flood flows Houghton, John C.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond Steve. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31275 2019-04-11T04:57:39Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Externalities and the placement of property rights : an alternative formulation to the standard Pigouvian results Hartman, Raymond Steve.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Mork, Knut Anton https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31274 2019-04-09T16:44:05Z 2006-03-06T16:58:09Z

Cyclical variation in the productivity of labor Mork, Knut Anton A revision of parts of the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Economics, 1977.

2006-03-06T16:58:09Z Berndt, Ernst R. Wood, David O. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31273 2019-04-09T18:30:13Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Consistent projections of energy demand and aggregate economic growth : a review of issues and empirical studies Berndt, Ernst R.; Wood, David O.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Moniz, Ernest J. Neff, Thomas L. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31272 2019-04-11T04:57:38Z 1977-09-27T00:00:00Z

Nuclear power and nuclear weapons proliferation Moniz, Ernest J.; Neff, Thomas L.

1977-09-27T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert. Jacoby, Henry D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31271 2019-04-11T04:57:37Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Alternative methods of oil supply forecasting Adelman, Morris Albert.; Jacoby, Henry D. This paper represents a collective effort by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31269 2019-04-12T08:37:00Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Prices and shortages : evaluating policy options for the natural gas industry Pindyck, Robert S.

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Carpenter, Paul R. Taylor, Gerald Alan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31268 2019-04-12T08:37:00Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

The economics and regulation of user-owned photovoltaic systems : a preliminary analysis Carpenter, Paul R.; Taylor, Gerald Alan

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Zimmerman, Martin B. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31267 2019-04-12T08:37:07Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

Rent & regulation in unit-train rate determination regional discrimination and inter-fuel competition Zimmerman, Martin B.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Wills, John https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31265 2019-04-12T08:36:59Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Residential demand for electricity in Massachusetts Wills, John

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31264 2019-04-12T08:37:12Z 1977-08-01T00:00:00Z

International comparisons of the residential demand for energy Pindyck, Robert S. A revised and updated version of "International comparisons of the residential demand for energy: a preliminary analysis," Working paper #MIT-EL 76-023WP, by the same author.

1977-08-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31261 2019-04-12T08:37:09Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

OPEC, oil prices, and the Western economies Pindyck, Robert S.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Wills, John https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31260 2019-04-12T08:36:58Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

esidential demand for electricity in Massachusetts Wills, John

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31258 2019-04-12T08:37:08Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Interfuel substitution and the industrial demand for energy : an international comparison Pindyck, Robert S

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Hartman, Raymond Steve Hollyer, Mark R. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31256 2019-04-09T16:17:55Z 1977-07-01T00:00:00Z

An examination of the use of probability modeling for the analysis of interfuel substitution in residential fuel demand Hartman, Raymond Steve; Hollyer, Mark R.

1977-07-01T00:00:00Z Eckbo, Paul Leo M.I.T. World Oil Project. Supply Analysis Group. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31255 2019-04-12T08:36:58Z 1977-07-01T00:00:00Z

The supply of North Sea oil Eckbo, Paul Leo; M.I.T. World Oil Project. Supply Analysis Group. This paper represents a collective effort by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project and was partly supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant no. SIA75-00739.

1977-07-01T00:00:00Z Bottaro, Drew Moscowitz, Jacob https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31251 2019-04-12T08:37:05Z 1977-12-01T00:00:00Z

Solar Photovoltaic Technology: Current Processes And Future Options Bottaro, Drew; Moscowitz, Jacob

1977-12-01T00:00:00Z Smith, Douglas Virgil https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31249 2019-04-12T08:37:04Z 1977-08-31T00:00:00Z

Small scale energy activities in India and Bangladesh : trip reports, March 17-31, 1977 and April 3-14, 1977 Smith, Douglas Virgil

1977-08-31T00:00:00Z Wills, John https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31248 2019-04-12T08:37:03Z 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z

Technical change in the primary metals industry Wills, John

1977-01-01T00:00:00Z Lamb, Jerry Selinger, Robert Chat Yu Lam. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31247 2019-04-12T08:36:56Z 1977-06-01T00:00:00Z

The GMIS 2 architecture Lamb, Jerry; Selinger, Robert; Chat Yu Lam. 23 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

1977-06-01T00:00:00Z Strout, Alan M. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31246 2019-04-11T04:57:34Z 1977-04-01T00:00:00Z

The future of nuclear power in the developing countries Strout, Alan M.

1977-04-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31244 2019-04-10T18:39:59Z 1977-03-01T00:00:00Z

Cartel pricing and the structure of the world bauxite market Pindyck, Robert S. Prepared for the Ford Foundation World Commodities Conference, Airlie, Virginia, March 18, 1977 under National Science Foundation Grant # GSF SIA75-00739

1977-03-01T00:00:00Z Jones, William J William J. Meyer, James Wagner https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31242 2019-04-10T16:37:26Z 1977-02-01T00:00:00Z

Energy conservation at the Purnell School Jones, William J William J.; Meyer, James Wagner

1977-02-01T00:00:00Z Iverach, David https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31239 2019-04-12T07:24:25Z 1977-05-01T00:00:00Z

Some implications and applications of a new oxidant control strategy Iverach, David Prepared under National Science Foundation Grant no. OEP 76-00284.

1977-05-01T00:00:00Z Donovan, John J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31236 2019-04-12T07:24:18Z 1977-04-21T00:00:00Z

Preliminary analysis of Carter’s energy conservation plan with respect to New England issues Donovan, John J.

1977-04-21T00:00:00Z Jacoby, Henry D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31233 2019-04-12T07:24:15Z 1977-05-01T00:00:00Z

Uranium dependence and the proliferation problem Jacoby, Henry D.

1977-05-01T00:00:00Z Jones, William J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31231 2019-04-12T08:25:28Z 1977-04-01T00:00:00Z

Technology options to meet energy demand and the economic impact on Black America Jones, William J. Talk given at the Fourth Annual Meeting of the National Organization for the Professional Advancement of Black Chemists and Chemical Engineers.

1977-04-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31228 2019-04-12T07:24:06Z 1977-05-01T00:00:00Z

Optimal exploration and production of a nonrenewable resource Pindyck, Robert S. Earlier studies of exhaustible resource production and pricing usually assume that there is a fixed reserve base that can be exploited over time. In reality there is no "fixed" reserve base (in an economically meaningful sense), since as price rises, additional proved and potential reserves become economical. Here we view a resource like oil as being "nonrenewable" rather than "exhaustible." There is a proved reserve base which is the basis for production, and exploratory activity is the means of increasing or maintaining this proved reserve base. "Potential reserves" are unlimited, but as depletion ensues, given amounts of exploratory activity result in ever-smaller discoveries. Thus resource producers must determine simultaneously their optimal rate of exploratory activity and their optimal rate of production. Optimal trajectories for exploratory activity and production are determined for both competitive and monopolistic producers, and are applied to a simple model of oil production in the Permian region of Texas. This report was partly sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI). Neither EPRI, members of EPRI, nor the Massachusetts Institute of Tecnnology, nor any person acting on behalf of either; a. Makes any warranty or representation, express or implied, with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the information contained in this report, or that the use of any information, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report may not infringe privately owned rights; or b. Assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of, or for damages resulting from the use of, any information, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report. This work was supported by the RANN Division of the National Science Foundation, under Grant # NSF SIA-00739, and by the Electric Power Research Institute, under Grant # RP871-1.

1977-05-01T00:00:00Z Barker, Joseph L. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31226 2019-04-12T08:09:58Z 1977-05-01T00:00:00Z

Oil cargo preference legislation : its potential impact on New England Barker, Joseph L. 21, [58] leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

1977-05-01T00:00:00Z Ball, Benjamin Calhoun https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/31225 2019-04-10T19:54:47Z 1977-05-23T00:00:00Z

Energy policy : what is really at issue Ball, Benjamin Calhoun

1977-05-23T00:00:00Z Eckbo, Paul Leo Jacoby, Henry D. Smith, James Lee https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/30378 2019-04-12T08:25:39Z 1977-02-01T00:00:00Z

Oil supply forecasting : a disaggregated process approach Eckbo, Paul Leo; Jacoby, Henry D.; Smith, James Lee This paper represents a collective effort by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project which is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant no. SIA75-00739.

1977-02-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29508 2019-04-12T08:25:54Z 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z

Externality valuation versus systemwide analysis : identifying cost and emissions reduction strategies for electric service "January 1992."; Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-22).

1992-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29507 2019-04-12T07:24:40Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Finding and developing costs in the USA 1945-1985 "Revision of 86-008WP"--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29506 2019-04-12T08:25:54Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Fighting the last war : preparations for the next oil crisis "This is a revised version of a paper presented to the 1986 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, April 10, 1986."--p. [1].; Includes bibliographical references.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29505 2019-04-12T07:24:39Z 1985-01-01T00:00:00Z

Estimating energy consumption from cross-country relationships Includes bibliographical references.

1985-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29504 2019-04-12T07:24:39Z 1985-01-01T00:00:00Z

The hidden world trade in energy Includes bibliographical references.

1985-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29503 2019-04-12T08:25:53Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Government intervention in production and incentives theory : a review of recent contributions Includes bibliographical references.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29502 2019-04-12T08:25:53Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system Includes bibliographical references.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29501 2019-04-12T07:24:38Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Managerial switching and myopia "Incomplete and very preliminary draft. October 16, 1987."--3rd prelim page.; Includes bibliographical references.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29500 2019-04-09T16:07:37Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

The excess co-movement of commodity prices Includes bibliographical references.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29499 2019-04-12T13:39:23Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Repeated auctions of incentive contracts, investment and bidding parity : with an application to takeovers Includes bibliographical references.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29498 2019-04-12T13:39:22Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Discounting rules for risky assets Includes bibliographical references.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29497 2019-04-09T17:12:36Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Numerical methods for contingent claims analysis of investment decisions Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1988.; Includes bibliographical references.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29496 2019-04-12T07:24:49Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Price control in long term contracts : the case of coal "Revised March, 1987."--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29495 2019-04-09T18:36:52Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

The economic organization of nuclear plant projects : some cross-national comparisons Includes bibliographical references.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29494 2019-04-12T07:24:48Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

A mathematical programming/economic equilibrium model for the quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system Includes bibliographical references.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29493 2019-04-09T15:33:09Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

The value of flexibility "Revised: March 1986."--3rd prelim. page.; Includes bibliographical references.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29492 2019-04-09T18:58:53Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Price discrimination and patent policy "September, 1986. Current version: March 15, 1988."--3rd prelim. page.; Includes bibliographical references.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29491 2019-04-12T08:25:59Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Exploration in competitive nonrenewable resource markets : an extension of Pindyck's perfect foresight model Includes bibliographical references.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29490 2019-04-12T13:39:31Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

World oil : availability and price the next ten years "This report was prepared as a background paper for presentation and discussion at the Asian Development Bank's Regional Meeting on Energy Policy held on December 11-12, 1986 in Manila."--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29489 2019-04-10T20:24:56Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Oil producing countries' discount rates Includes bibliographical references.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29488 2019-04-10T07:58:50Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Mineral depletion, with special reference to petroleum "Revised May 1988."--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29487 2019-04-12T08:25:59Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

The competitive floor to world oil prices "Revised July 1986."--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29486 2019-04-12T08:25:59Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Interdependencies between operating options Includes bibliographical references.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29485 2019-04-12T08:25:58Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Valuing the flexibility of flexible manufacturing systems Includes bibliographical references.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Hall, Robert Ernest Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27854 2019-04-10T20:57:21Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Low prices or self-sufficiency : the conflicting goals of national energy policy Hall, Robert Ernest; Pindyck, Robert S.

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Bugos, Beverly Jeane https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27853 2019-04-10T07:23:18Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

The U.S. supersonic transport program, 1961-1971 : an examination in search of lessons for current energy technology commercialization projects Bugos, Beverly Jeane Prepared for the United States Energy Research and Development Administration under Contract no. E(49-18) 2295, Task order 6

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Rothberg, David L. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27852 2019-04-12T08:38:50Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

The U.S. Government's automotive safety program : a preliminary examination Rothberg, David L.

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Samuelson, Paul Reid https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27851 2019-04-10T20:57:00Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

The U.S. government synthetic rubber program, 1941-1955 : an examination in search of lessons for current energy technology commercialization projects Samuelson, Paul Reid Prepared for the United States Energy Research and Development Administration under Contract no. E(40-18) 2295, Task order 6

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Boshier, John F. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27850 2019-04-12T08:38:50Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

New Zealand electricity supply Boshier, John F.

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Shapiro, Jeremy F. White, David Edwin Wood, David O. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27849 2019-04-12T08:38:53Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Sensitivity analysis of the Brookhaven energy system optimization model Shapiro, Jeremy F.; White, David Edwin; Wood, David O.

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27848 2019-04-11T02:45:01Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

International comparisons of the residential demand for energy : a preliminary analysis Pindyck, Robert S. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Fischer, Walter P. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27847 2019-04-12T08:38:52Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

A note of residential heating oil inventory policies Fischer, Walter P. The question whether present inventory policies of residential heating oil consumers are stable or likely to change as a result of higher oil prices or a shortage situation is investigated on the basis of a model which explains heating energy cost as a function of a consumer's tank capacity, the size of oil deliveries, his choice of a safety level of oil in his tank, and on the basis of data for Massachusetts. For the most common situation of a consumer who owns a 270 gallon tank and consumes 1000 to 2000 gallons per heating season, the result is: Unless the consumer expect substantial fluctuations in the price of oil to occur during each year throughout the depreciation period of the tank, there is little incentive to change the present inventory policy: One 270 gallon tank and the avoidance of policies which reduce the delivery size through partial fills or a large safety level, are stable policies. This work was conducted in part under an M.I.T./IBM Joint Study in association with the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management's Center for Information Systems Research, and the NEEMIS Project

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Meyer, James Wagner https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27846 2019-04-11T02:45:00Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Applied solar energy at the Shiraz Technical Institute Meyer, James Wagner Factors affecting the application of solar energy and the preliminary design of a solar system to supplement the service hot water system at the Shiraz Technical Institute are described. In addition to the solar energy demonstration, the educational benefits of selected solar projects and laboratory experiments are discussed. An effective, yet expandable, initial installation can be made at reasonably low cost because advantage is taken of architectural features of the buildings and the nature of the conventional service hot water heating system. Opportunities for the future are also briefly considered.

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Gruhl, Jim https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27845 2019-04-12T08:38:52Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Health/environmental consequences of energy conversion alternatives : a bibliography Gruhl, Jim

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z NEEMIS Staff, Systems Programming Group, Energy Lab https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27844 2019-04-11T02:44:59Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Report on computer usage of accounts under the IBM/M.I.T. joint study agreement NEEMIS Staff, Systems Programming Group, Energy Lab Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Donovan, John J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27843 2019-04-11T02:44:57Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

A note on performance of VM/370 in the integration of models and databases Donovan, John J. As the proliferation of programming systems and database systems continues and, correspondingly, as the need for integrating these systems for certain applications increases, VM/370 offers a mechanism for such integration. This paper analyzes the performance of a configuration of virtual machines using VM/370 that allows for the sharing of a database system among several incompatible programs in an interactive environment. Specifically, two aspects of performance are addressed--an experimental study of the overhead cost incurred in the interface mechanisms employed, and a theoretical study of the degradation of response time due to the locking mechanisms employed. The conclusion of the experimental observations is that for sophisticated, complex accesses to the database system, the overhead costs are relatively small. The result of the theoretical study is the quantification of that degradation as a function of speeds of the database machine and the rate with which queries are made. The discussion of the practical implications of this theoretical study presents ways to improve this degradation. The observed conclusion of this work is our feeling that, for certain application areas, the benefits resulting from increased effectiveness of users outweigh the costs incurred. Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Donovan, John J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27842 2019-04-12T08:38:51Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Database system approach to management decision support Donovan, John J. As the complexity of modern day life increases with astonishing rapidity, the complexity of the problems the policymaker must face increases at a correspondingly rapid rate. Traditional intuitive methods of decision-making are no longer adequate to deal with these complex problems. Thus systems must be developed to provide the information and analysis necessary for the decisions which must be made. We call these systems Decision Support Systems (DSS). While database systems provide a key ingredient to decision support systems, the characteristics of the problems now facing the policymaker are different from those problems to which database systems have been applied in the past. That is, the problems are usually not known in advance, they are constantly changing, and answers are needed within a short time frame. Hence, additional technologies, methodologies,and approaches must expand the traditional areas of database and operating systems research (as well as other software and hardware research) in order for them to become truly effective in supporting policymakers. This paper describes our work in this area. In indicating where future work is needed, it is a call for action as we feel that decision support systems are absolutely essential to decision makers dealing with today's complex and ever-changing problems. Specifically, the paper discusses: (1) why there exists a vital need for decision support systems; (2) examples from our work in the field of energy which make explicit the characteristics which distinguish these decision support systems from traditional operational and managerial systems; (3) how an awareness of decision support systems has evolved, including a brief review of work done by others and a statement of the computational needs of decision support systems which is consistent with contemporary technology; (4) an approach we have made to meet many of these computational needs through the development and implementation of a computational facility, GMIS (Generalized Management Information System); and (5) the application of this computational facility to a complex and important energy problem facing New England in a typical study within the NEEMIS (New England Energy Management Information System) Project. Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Gruhl, Jim https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27840 2019-04-12T08:39:19Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Scientific background on probabilistic air pollution dosage modeling Gruhl, Jim

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Gruhl, Jim https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27838 2019-04-12T08:39:19Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Health implications of oil-to-coal conversion in New England power plants Gruhl, Jim

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27836 2019-04-12T08:39:21Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Gains to producers from the cartelization of exhaustible resources Pindyck, Robert S. The potential gains to producers from the cartelization of the world petroleum, copper, and bauxite markets are calculated under the assumption of optimal dynamic monopoly pricing of an exhaustible resource. Small quantitative models for the markets for each resource are developed that account for short-term lag adjustments in demand and supply as well as long-term resource depletion. Potential gains from the cartelization of each resource are measured by calculating optimal price trajectories under competition and under cartelization, and comparing the sums of discounted profits resulting from each. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Demand Analysis Group, M.I.T. World Oil Project https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27834 2019-04-11T02:45:16Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

A user's guide to the M.I.T. world energy demand data base Demand Analysis Group, M.I.T. World Oil Project Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Agmon, Tamir Lessard, Donald R. Paddock, James L. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27619 2019-04-11T02:45:12Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Accommodation in the international capital markets and the recycling of oil funds Agmon, Tamir; Lessard, Donald R.; Paddock, James L. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Supply Analysis Group, M.I.T. World Oil Project https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27618 2019-04-11T02:45:10Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Oil supply forecasting using disaggregated pool analysis Supply Analysis Group, M.I.T. World Oil Project Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Hnyilicza, Esteban Pindyck, Robert S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27612 2019-04-09T16:29:52Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel: The case of OPEC Hnyilicza, Esteban; Pindyck, Robert S. This paper examines pricing policies for OPEC under the assumption that the cartel is composed of a block of spender countries with large cash needs and a block of saver countries with little immediate need for cash and a lower rate of discount. The decision problem for the two-part cartel is embodied in a game-theoretic framework and the optimal bargaining solution is computed using results from the theory of cooperative games developed by Nash. The set of feasible bargaining points -- and the corresponding Nash solution -- is computed under two assumptions on the behavior of output shares: that they are subject to choice and that they are fixed at historical values. Our results suggest that for fixed output shares, there is little room for bargaining and the price path approximates the optimal monopoly price path. If the shares are subject to control, optimal paths depend significantly on the relative bargaining power of each block. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Polenske, Karen R. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27529 2019-04-09T19:17:44Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Net energy analysis in the Energy Research and Development Administration plan Polenske, Karen R. Report prepared for the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory and the Office of Technology Assessment

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Beall, Arthur Oren https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27528 2019-04-12T08:39:20Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Dynamics of petroleum industry investment in the North Sea Beall, Arthur Oren This investigation has attempted to provide acurrent estimate of the oil potential of the northern North Sea from which estimates of exploration investment, development investment, and accruing cash-flows can be derived. Current proven reserves are estimated at 29.4 billion barrels oil equivalent, of which 22.6 billion barrels are oil. Of the 59 discoveries documented, 8 can be classed as true gas accumulations. Undiscovered potential for the area of study is estimated at 24.3 billion barrels, giving a most probable ultimate recoverable reserve of 53.7 billion barrels oil equivalent. Depending on minimum commercial field size, recoverable oil reserves should vary between 33.7 and 39.2 billion barrels. Current development of 14.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil involves an estimated capital investment of $16.8 billion dollars. Peak daily production is estimated to occur in 1981 at 4.12 million barrels daily. An additional 4.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil is in various stages of evaluation and will probably be developed, yielding a total of 19.4 billion barrels of reserves and a total peak production of 4.95 million barrels per day in 1981. Capital investment is estimated at $27 billion dollars for the total. In order to develop current plus discovered plus future discoveries, private industry is estimated to require between $56 and $70 billion dollars. Most of this investment, including approximately $6 billion additional outlay for exploration, is anticipated to occur between now and 1985. Peak production of 6.58 to 7.85 million barrels per day is estimated to occur around 1986, representing a total reserve development of approximately 34.4 to 38.4 billion barrels of oil. Private industry is anticipated to earn between $30 and $56 billion dollars whereas government take, assuming a lower discount rate, is estimated to run between $83 and $222 billion dollars. Critical to this analysis are assumptions about host-government tax policy and the world price of crude oil, especially as pertaining to "marginal" North Sea fields. Utilizing an econometric model developed by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project, investigation of discounted cash-flow profiles for various field sizes indicates that access to crude supply and development of subsequent discoveries appear to be the primary economic incentives for continuing to operate smaller fields after peak production is obtained. Tax policy and high operating costs relative to productive capacity tend to make small fields less attractive investments. Finally, it is patently obvious that very high per-well productivity is essential for viable development of North Sea fields under current economic, political, fiscal, and technical constraints. Originally presented as the author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Eckbo, Paul Leo https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27525 2019-04-12T08:39:44Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

The international petroleum market : some behavioral options Eckbo, Paul Leo This thesis describes a behavioral model of the international petroleum market and presents the results from it. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework for analysis of the implications of the likely degree of non-competitive behavior to be observed in the international petroleum market. The focus of the model is on the market strategies that may be pursued by the world's oil exporters on a joint or an individual basis. The structure of the model is designed to combine features of formal modelling and of informal "story-telling" in a consistent framework. Such a structure requires a simulation type model. The "stories" that are being told are constructed from cartel theory, from the empirical evidence on previous commodity cartels, and from the special characteristics of the individual oil exporters. The model described is evolutionary in the sense that each exporter is assumed to behave according to a set of decision rules which may reflect a competitive market structure, a monopolistic market structure, or any combination of the two. The change of the decision rules being applied provides for the evolution of the market price. An attempt has been made to combine the merits of formal competitive and monopoly models with those of the informal "story-telling" approach. The price- and quantity-paths consistent with the various "stories" over the period from 1974 to 1990 are reported. Originally presented as the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Joskow, Paul L. Rosanski, George https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27523 2019-04-12T08:39:25Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Fuel utilization by the electric utility industry in the United States, 1975-1995 Joskow, Paul L.; Rosanski, George

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z M.I.T. World Oil Project https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27522 2019-04-12T08:39:46Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Progress on analysis of the world oil market M.I.T. World Oil Project A six-month report to the National Science Foundation on the project "Analysis of the world oil market", Contract no. SIA75-00739

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Donovan, John J. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27520 2019-04-12T07:20:54Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Primer for GMIS : General Management Information System Donovan, John J. GMIS (Generalized Management Information System) is a set of tools for building information systems. These tools include a flexible data management capability, various modeling and analytical capabilities. Facilities for on line queries and execution as well as facilities for multi- user access to a data base. These tools have been applied to produce a facility (NEEMIS, New England Energy Management Information System) for energy planning and analysis within New England. This manual's purpose is to be a primer for using GMIS and the NEEMIS facility. For motivation and overview of the research involved in GMIS, see "GATIS - An Experimental System for Data Management and Analysis", by J. Donovan and H. Jacoby. For a complete description of the facility, see GMIS User's Guide. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management.

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Donovan, John J. Jacoby, Henry D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27516 2019-04-11T02:45:45Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

GMIS : an experimental system for data management and analysis Donovan, John J.; Jacoby, Henry D. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Agmon, Tamir Lessard, Donald R. Paddock, James Lester https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27515 2019-04-12T08:39:24Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

The international finance aspects of OPEC : an informational note Agmon, Tamir; Lessard, Donald R.; Paddock, James Lester

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Finger, Susan https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27513 2019-04-12T08:39:51Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Modeling conventional and pumped hydro-electric energy using Booth-Baleriaux probabilistic simulation Finger, Susan

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Hoffman, Kenneth C. Wood, David O. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27512 2019-04-12T08:39:45Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Energy system modeling and forecasting Hoffman, Kenneth C.; Wood, David O.

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Eckbo, Paul Leo https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27510 2019-04-12T07:20:54Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

OPEC and the experience of previous international commodity cartels Eckbo, Paul Leo

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z MIT Energy Lab https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27507 2019-04-11T02:45:34Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

NEEMIS overview : New England Energy Management Information System MIT Energy Lab Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Wood, David O. Hausman, Jerry A. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27505 2019-04-10T20:36:56Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Energy demand in the ERDA national R,D&D plan Wood, David O.; Hausman, Jerry A.

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Greenwood, Ted Ronald Ivan Jacoby, Henry D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27292 2019-04-12T08:40:23Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

International issues in energy R & D policy Greenwood, Ted Ronald Ivan; Jacoby, Henry D.

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Donovan, John J. Keating, W. Robert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27291 2019-04-12T08:39:45Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

NEEMIS : text of governors presentation of October 6, 1975 Donovan, John J.; Keating, W. Robert This is the text of a presentation given to the six New England governors on November 7, 1975. The presentation focused on explaining how the New England Energy Management Information System (NEEMIS) has helped the region, what it is, how it will continue to help the region, what unique technology made it possible, what shall be done in the future, and a demonstration of one application. Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Donovan, John J. Fischer, Walter P. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27288 2019-04-12T08:39:23Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Factors affecting residential heating energy consumption Donovan, John J.; Fischer, Walter P. Twenty per cent of all energy consumed in New England and ten per cent of all energy consumed in the United States is consumed in home heating. This paper reports on an effort to ascertain the major factors affecting the consumption of home heating oil. Three general classes of factors are analyzed: (1) physical and occupant characteristics (number of rooms, number of occupants, number of stories, amount of insulation, income level, etc.); (2) external (price, shortage awareness, weather); and (3) behavioral and physical changes (change in temperature settings, change in insulation, change in oil burner, etc.). The study is based on four data series: (1) actual monthly home heating oil consumption data on 8000 suburban homeowners in suburban Boston; (2) questionnaire responses from 2000 homeowners on their homes' physical and occupant characteristics, as well as changes in physical and occu- pant behavioral characteristics between 1972 and 1975; (3) monthly weather data; and (4) heating oil price data. The data is associated with the years from 1972 through 1975, a period in which marked price changes, shortages, and behavioral changes occurred, hence providing an opportunity to study the effects of these various events. Three models are central to the study: Model I. A cross-sectional model that depicts consumption per degree-day as a function of physical and occupant characteristics of a home. Model II. A time series regression model that establishes consumption per degree-day as a function of price and consumer awareness of an energy shortage. Model III. A cross-sectional regression model that attempts to explain change in consumption per degree-day from one year to the next as a function of specific conservation actions such as temperature resetting, addition of storm windows, etc. The major findings of each model are as follows: Model I: House size, age of home, family income, and the presence of storm doors and windows are all significant factors in predicting the amount of home oil consumption. Model II: Estimated values of price elasticity with respect to demand for residential heating oil and a measure of 'mnpact of shortage awareness on consumption are determined. This model also demonstrates that there were substantial savings in consumption corresponding to increases in price and shortage awareness from 1972-1975. Model III: he data from the questionnaire indicate that only a few consumers made physical home improvements; however, the data from the oil company indicate that a substantial savings (over 12%) in consumption occurred between the heating seasons 1972/73 and 1973/74. The conclusion from this data indicates that behavioral changes were the major conservation actions taken. Model III indicates that the behavioral change of temperature resetting is significant and the physical change of additional weather stripping and change of burner are significant. Further study is needed, however, to determine those behavioral changes that accounted for the major change in consumption. In addition, this model indicates that different groups within the sample (e.g., by income level, house characteristics) display similar conservation efficiency. In addition to the findings of the models, the paper includes (in Appendix B) a detailed discussion of biases associated with the data. Major conclusions from that discussion are: (1) our sample is representative of suburban homes in the Northern United States; (2) the consumers who responded to the questionnaire were slightly more energy- conscious and responded slightly more dramatically to price increases than the general populace; (3) our residential heating oil prices are representative of those that prevailed in the region; and (4) the heating seasons 1972 through 1975 were warmer than usual. Trends in the data indicate that new homes in the sample have a considerable amount of insulation and the typical single-family house in the sample has storm windows and doors.

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27281 2019-04-12T07:21:08Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

World oil : availability and price the next ten years Adelman, Morris Albert This report was prepared as a background paper for presentation and discussion at the Asian Development Bank's Regional Meeting on Energy Policy held on December 11-12, 1986 in Manila

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Jacobs, Emmett Allen https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27278 2019-04-12T08:40:41Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

The agency cost of corporate control : the petroleum industry Jacobs, Emmett Allen

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Shurcliff, Alice W. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27276 2019-04-12T07:21:01Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Local economic impact of nuclear power plants Shurcliff, Alice W.

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Strout, Alan Mayne https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27275 2019-04-11T03:55:16Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

The hidden world trade in energy Strout, Alan Mayne The energy embodied in internationally traded commodities is estimated for the year 1967 by employing United States input-output energy coefficients expressed in physical units. In this year and under the assumption of USA technology and industrial structure, this "hidden" world trade in energy probably exceeded 40 per cent of the directly observed world trade in energy. As a ratio to aggregate energy consumption, the importance of embodied energy flows is smaller, but net embodied energy imports are positively correlated with per capita GDP, and their inclusion in aggregate energy consumption would increase measured income (per capita GDP) elasticities. A country's imports of embodied energy are approximately proportional to the imports of all commodities. Exports of embodied energy, on the other hand, especially those associated with more energy-intensive materials (which are largely products of what is commonly called heavy industry and which account for most of the country net imports of embodied energy) have a much higher elasticity than do imports with respect to per capita GDP. These energy-intensive exports are also significantly affected by a country's relative production of primary energy, total agricultural crops, and other natural resources.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Linden, Lawrence Howard https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27274 2019-04-11T02:45:37Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Federal support for the development of alternative automotive power systems : the General Issue and the Stirling, Diesel and Electric cases Linden, Lawrence Howard Submitted to the Office and Energy R & D Policy, National Science Foundation

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Strout, Alan Mayne https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27272 2019-04-10T21:48:51Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Estimating energy consumption from cross-country relationships Strout, Alan Mayne

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Laughton, David G. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27270 2019-04-10T16:47:29Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Exploration in competitive nonrenewable resource markets : an extension of Pindyck's perfect foresight model Laughton, David G. Pindyck's model of exploration for, and production of, a non-renewable resource (Pindyck 1978) is extended so that the production cost function may depend separately on concurrently available reserves and on the total amount of past production. A method for obtaining the optimal trajectory of parameterised specifications of the model is tested on elaborations of a corrected version of the parameterised specification used by Pindyck in his paper. The initial price for each simulation is tabulated.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Oyama, Tatsuo https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27267 2019-04-09T17:52:59Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system Oyama, Tatsuo In order to measure Japan's energy system's stability under an uncertain future availability of energy resources, we built a mathematical programming / economic equilibrium model based upon linear programming techniques. Future uncertainty is expressed as random variables with a given probability distribution, and the economic equilibrium point is obtained by iterative convergent computation. Numerical experiments show an optimal energy supply-demand structure with equilibrium prices of primary energy resources at the future target year, then we obtain supply stability and instability probabilities of our energy system. From shadow price analysis of an optimal solution our energy policy is quantitatively evaluated.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Oyama, Tatsuo https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27264 2019-04-12T11:21:49Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

A mathematical programming/economic equilibrium model for the quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system Oyama, Tatsuo Japan's energy supply-demand system is fully dependent on the import of primary energy resources from foreign countries. So the availability of primary energy, including crude oil and coal, is a very important factor for the stability of our energy system. In order to measure our energy system's stability under an uncertain future availability of energy resources, we built a mathematical programming / economic equilibrium model based upon linear programming techniques. In the model analysis uncertain future availability of primary energy resources is expressed as random variables with a given probability distribution, and the economic equilibrium point is obtained by iterative convergent computation. From our numerical results we know an optimal energy supply-demand structure with equilibrium prices of primary energy resources at the future target year, and obtain supply stability and instability probabilities of our energy system. Furthermore, applicability of decomposition techniques to our energy model analysis and necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of our energy system are discussed.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27262 2019-04-12T11:21:49Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Oil producing countries' discount rates Adelman, Morris Albert The small LDCs which own the great bulk of oil resour- ces are rational agents and calculate with short horizons and high discount rates. They have pre-commitments to spend much (or even more than all) of their incomes, hence behave like highly leveraged corporations. They are also undiversified, hence the risk factors are set not by covariance with a diversified portfolio or sources of income, but rather by the variance of the oil income stream itself. Political risk is additional. High discount rates act both to raise and lower the depletion rate, so the net effect is indeterminate without knowledge of costs, not considered here. High discount rates sharply lower the effective elasticity of demand, and lead to a cartel policy of "take the money and run."

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Kulatilaka, Nalin https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27259 2019-04-12T08:40:44Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

The value of flexibility Kulatilaka, Nalin This paper develops a framework to evaluate the economic value derived from a firm's ability to switch between different modes of production in the face of uncertain prices. The model, cast as a set of simulataneous stochastic dynamic programs, is solved for the ex-ante value of flexibility, the optimal technology choice, and critical prices at which switching is optimal. This general model of flexibility is used to synthesize several recent studies of real options encountered in capital budgeting. For example, the model yields as special cases (a) the value of waiting to invest, (b) the option to abandon, (c) the value of having an option to shut down, (d) the replacement timing and technology choice, and (e) the "time to build" option for irreversible projects that require sequential outlays. We use an illustrative example with two modes to show that the value of flexibility is monotonically increasing with price variability and switching frequency. The value of flexibility can contribute about a 15 percent improvement over the better fixed technology. Early in the life of the project it is optimal to switch modes when the difference between values under one mode (for the current period and optimal switching thereafter) and the other mode exceeds the switching cost. Towards the end of the economic life, the above difference must be significantly larger for swithcing to occur.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z MIT Energy Lab https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27258 2019-04-12T07:21:01Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Information systems to provide leading indicators of energy sufficiency : a report to the Federal Energy Administration MIT Energy Lab Final working paper, submitted to Office of Data Policy, Federal Energy Administration in connection with A Study of information systems to provide leading indicators of energy sufficiency, (FEA Contract no. 14-01-001-2040).

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Evans, Lawrance B. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27256 2019-04-12T08:40:42Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Computer-aided analysis of critical technologies for hydrogen manufacture Evans, Lawrance B. The development of new hampered by exhaustive researc several alternative production need for a tool which can prov guide the selection of the mos identify the critical areas of process most efficient. This hydrogen manufacture, consider future of synfuels technology, flowsheet simulation can fill chemical processes is often h into many variations in methods. There is a real ide early information to help t promising routes and research to make the final study uses the example of ed very important for the to demonstrate how computer this need. Three different hydrogen production processes were modeled with the ASPEN flowsheet simulation system. Steam reforming and partial oxidation of methane were studied separately and then compared. For each model the process efficiency, defined in terms of product purity, yield, and cost, was analyzed as a function of the operating conditions. Trends in behavior were plotted and methodologies for process optimization found. On comparing the processes, steam reforming was identified as the more cost effective process. Partial oxidation, although resulting in lower initial capital investment for the same size plant, has higher operating costs associated with the need for a pure oxygen feed. This process is competitive with steam reforming only if a very low cost source of oxygen is available. The third process simulated was electrolysis of water. This demonstrated the method by which flowsheet simulation can be used to compare processes based on very different technologies. It was found that because of the cost of the large amount of electricity needed, electrolysis produces hydrogen at several times the cost as that of the steam reforming process. In addition, the capital expenditure for a large scale electrolysis plant is much higher than the same size steam reforming facility because of the high cost of the necessary electrolysis equipment. This suggests that electrolysis is not a viable alternative for hydrogen manufacture on the scale needed for future synfuels processes.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27253 2019-04-12T08:40:44Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

The competitive floor to world oil prices Adelman, Morris Albert In this OPEC crisis or the next, oil prices may fall to the competitive floor. At the high-cost end of the spectrum, it would take a price as low as $4 to produce an immediate shutdown of nearly half of capacity in the United States, and as low as $2 to do the same in the North Sea. A price of $10 would stop development investment for the bulk of U.S. oil and over a third of North Sea oil. Capacity would therefore decline by roughly 6 percent per year. At the low-cost end, assuming continued competition and completely independent decision-making, a price of $5 would make it profitable for the OPEC nations to expand output to about 60 million barrels daily. This price would be sustainable past 1995. This projection is not a forecast, however.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Crandall, Maureen S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27249 2019-04-12T08:40:24Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

The economics of Iranian oil Crandall, Maureen S.

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Sequeira, Sergio Guimarães de Baughman, Martin Lynn https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27239 2019-04-12T08:40:24Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Engineering estimates of transmission and distribution equipment costs Sequeira, Sergio Guimarães de; Baughman, Martin Lynn

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Lynch, Michael C. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27238 2019-04-12T11:21:51Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Fighting the last war : preparations for the next oil crisis Lynch, Michael C. This is a revised version of a paper presented to the 1986 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, April 10, 1986

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z Bottaro, Drew Baughman, Martin Lynn https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27230 2019-04-10T19:27:28Z 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z

Estimation of transmission and distribution equipment needs Bottaro, Drew; Baughman, Martin Lynn

1975-01-01T00:00:00Z Connors, Stephen R. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27219 2019-04-12T08:38:44Z 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z

Externality valuation versus systemwide analysis : identifying cost and emissions reduction strategies for electric service Connors, Stephen R. In an effort to require electric utilities to assess the environmental impacts of their activities, public utilities commissions nationwide have been turning to the use of environmental externality valuation as a tool in integrated resource planning. To date, policy discussions have focused predominantly upon the correct value and calculation of externality adders, rather than their use and applicability as a planning tool. This paper discusses the use and utility of externality valuation for identifying low-cost, low-emissions electric service strategies. Using data obtained from a broad based examination of New England's electric service options, this paper compares the externality valuation concepts with the information generally obtained from electric power system simulation and production-costing analyses. While a valid economic concept, the application of externality values is of little use in identifying which strategies are both low-cost and low-emissions, or the specific policy options required to ensure their implementation. Externality valuation should therefore be used only as a last step, to select from among low-cost, low- emissions strategies once the aggregate cost and emissions impacts of those strategies have been identified.

1992-01-01T00:00:00Z Meehan, James Carl https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27215 2019-04-11T02:44:49Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Numerical methods for contingent claims analysis of investment decisions Meehan, James Carl In this thesis I examine the numerical methods used in option valuation with analysis focusing on the more complex options associated with investment decisions. Two options implicit in many projects are identified and analyzed: i) the option to halt construction of a project, and ii) the option to shut down the production lines once the project is complete. The partial differential equations governing the values of these two options are derived, discretized, and solved using numerical techniques. Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1988

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Hausman, Jerry A. MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27213 2019-04-11T09:10:35Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Price discrimination and patent policy Hausman, Jerry A.; MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K. Patent and antitrust policy are often presumed to be in conflict. As an important example, there is ongoing controversy about whether price discrimination by a patent holder is an illegal or socially undesirable exploitation of monopoly power. In this article. we show that no conflict exists in many price discrimination cases. Even ignoring the (dynamic) effects on incentives for innovation, third-degree price discrimination by patent holders can raise (static) social welfare. In fact, Pareto improvements may well occur. Welfare gains occur because price discrimination allows patent holders: (a) to open new markets and (b) to achieve economies of scale or learning. Further, even in cases where discrimination incurs static welfare losses, it may be efficient relative to other mechanisms, such as length of patent life, for rewarding innovators with profits.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Kulatilaka, Nalin https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27212 2019-04-10T20:48:04Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Valuing the flexibility of flexible manufacturing systems Kulatilaka, Nalin This paper studies a topical issue: Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) justification. We contend that current evaluation methods fall short of capturing a key advantage of an FMS: the value of flexibility. We identify various benefits of FMS that arise from the ability to switch between modes of production, and in particular, we model the value derived from the ability to better cope with uncertainty. A model to capture this value must solve for the value of flexibility together with the dynamic operating schedule of the production process. We present a stochastic dynamic programming model that captures the essential elements of this problem. A numerical example further demonstrates the optimal mode switching decision rules. This research has several important managerial implications. It emphasizes the importance of ex ante economic justification of flexible manufacturing systems and proposes a way to modify existing capital budgeting techniques to incorporate the special features of flexibility. As the value of flexibility depends inherently on the design of the manufacturing system, the design and justification stages must be conducted simultaneously. We also show how to include other operating decisions in the valuation model. These can include the investment timing or the decision to temporarily shut down or to abandon the project entirely.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Kulatilaka, Nalin https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27211 2019-04-12T08:38:44Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Interdependencies between operating options Kulatilaka, Nalin This paper presents a computationally feasible technique to value operating flexibilities in making capital budgeting decisions. We investigate how the value of a project is affected by the simultaneous introduction of several operating options. Previous studies have focused on operating options one at a time. A numerical example demonstrates the options to wait to invest, to abandon, and to temporarily shut down -- first, one at a time and then more than one at a time. -- As expected, the project value increases with the introduction of additional options. Adding new options, however, reduces the value of the previously available options. We also study the impact of adding new options on the critical boundaries at which existing options are exercised. These results help sharpen our intuition about the effects of and interactions between operating options. Easiliy implemented on a Personal Computer, the model is sufficiently general to handle various types of production flexibilities and assumptions regarding the economic environment. Hence, for the first time, we have available a quantitative technique that accounts for operating flexibilities that can be incorporated practically in the capital budgeting process.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27209 2019-04-11T09:10:32Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Finding and developing costs in the USA 1945-1985 Adelman, Morris Albert Development cost is defined as the ratio of development expenditures in a given year to reserves added in that year. Changes in development cost are a good proxy for changes in finding cost and in user cost, because discovery, development, and postponement or holding of hydrocarbons in place, are three competing forms of investment. Popular definitions of "finding" cost are an illogical and useless mixture of discovery and development. Although the discovery of large oil fields peaked before 1930, oil reserves added by development increased then stabilized around 1960. Costs tended if anything to decrease through 1972, but the decrease was mostly a one-time gain through the retreat from a costly regulatory scheme. The first price explosion in 1974 saw a strong decline in oil reserves added. The second price explosion was followed by an increase, but the best performance since 1949-51 came in 1983- 85, when oil prices were declining by nearly one fourth in real terms. High oil and gas prices promoted a drilling boom, which raised factor prices and lowered efficiency. Old-field development was therefore inhibited, but then helped as the boom deflated. Therefore the effect of the steeper price decline of 1986-87 has been mitigated by the decline in cost.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Adelman, Morris Albert https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27206 2019-04-11T09:10:31Z 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z

Mineral depletion, with special reference to petroleum Adelman, Morris Albert Two implications of received theory are (1) mineral net prices rise at the riskless interest rate, and (2) in-ground value is equal to the current net price. Both propositions are false. A correct theory has been joined to mistaken premises. Mineral resources are inexhaustible. The economic problem is not the intertemporal allocation of a stock but coping with the cost of a flow of reserve accretions. Mineral scarcity and price are the uncertain fluctuating result of a tug-of-war between diminishing returns versus increasing knowledge. Hence minerals are risky assets. Development cost, finding cost, and user cost (the penalty for development/production today instead of tomorrow) are all substitutes. Hence change in any one is a proxy for change in any other. Development cost is observable, and has been stable in many countries for pro- longed periods. User cost was also stable in the USA. There is no sign of any pattern of gradual depletion and rising cost. A simple model of an individual reservoir explains observed relations of value and price. The rate of interest has both a positive and negative effect upon the rate of reservoir depletion. The net effect of a change is therefore weak. Expropriation of low-cost oil fields, had they been operated independently to maximize value, would have led to drastic increases in depletion rates. The fact of decrease proves collusive restriction of output to maintain prices.

1988-01-01T00:00:00Z Caillaud, Bernard https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27204 2019-04-12T08:38:41Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Government intervention in production and incentives theory : a review of recent contributions Caillaud, Bernard This paper reviews the recent literature on regulation under asymmetric information. If first develops the conceptual framework and offers a reminder of the techniques used in the field. It then applies the framework and techniques to a variety of situations, with or without the use of accounting data. Next, the analysis is extended to dynamics with or without commitment. The paper concludes with desirable directions for research.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Laffont, Jean-Jacques Tirole, Jean https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27203 2019-04-09T16:53:35Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Managerial switching and myopia Laffont, Jean-Jacques; Tirole, Jean

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Laffont, Jean-Jacques Tirole, Jean https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27202 2019-04-12T08:38:41Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Repeated auctions of incentive contracts, investment and bidding parity : with an application to takeovers Laffont, Jean-Jacques; Tirole, Jean This paper considers a two-period model of repeated franchise bidding or second sourcing. A regulator contracts with a single firm in each period, presumably because of increasing returns to scale. The incumbent firm invests in the first period. The investment may be transferable to a second source or not; and may be monetary or in human capital. Each firm has private information about its intrinsic efficiency, and, if it is selected to produce. about the cost-reducing effort it exerts and the investment it makes. The regulator, however, observes the firm's realized cost at the end of the period (the cost includes monetary investments and may be random). In the second period the incumbent firm can be replaced by an entrant. The regulator commits to an optimal breakout rule. The paper generalizes an earlier result that the optimal policy is to regulate through contracts linear in cost overruns. It also derives conclusions concerning the intertemporal evolution of incentive schemes. Mainly, it puts emphasis on the issue of bidding parity. It shows that three basic effects guide the optimal bias in the second-period auctioning process and determines whether the incumbent should be favored depending on the nature of investments. The outcome of the analysis is a relatively pessimistic assessment of the desirability of second sourcing when sizeable investments are at stake. Last we reinterpret the second source as a raider, and the breakout as a takeover. We discuss the desirability of defensive tactics, and obtain some relationships between the size of managerial stock options, the amount of defensive tactics, the firm's performance and the probability of a takeover.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Pindyck, Robert S. Rotemberg, Julio https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/27201 2019-04-12T08:38:40Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

The excess co-movement of commodity prices Pindyck, Robert S.; Rotemberg, Julio

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Joskow, Paul L. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/18208 2019-04-12T08:38:42Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Price control in long term contracts : the case of coal Joskow, Paul L. A sample of coal contracts between electric utilities and coal suppliers is used to analyze mechanisms for determining prices in long term coal contracts. Alternative methods for determining prices in long term contracts are discussed and the actual adjustment mechanisms specified in a set of actual coal contracts presented. The vast majority of long term coal contracts use a base price plus escalation or cost-plus adjustment formula. Base price equations and subsequent transactions price equations are estimated. The analysis shows that on average long term contracts are flexible in the sense that prices adjust to major changes in the costs of supplying coal. However, some pricing rigidities are found which appear to reflect the economic conditions prevailing at the time the contracts were executed. Furthermore, some contracts track changes in market values very poorly.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Lester, Richard K. (Richard Keith), 1954- Crocker, Margarita B. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/18200 2019-04-12T23:37:55Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

The economic organization of nuclear plant projects : some cross-national comparisons Lester, Richard K. (Richard Keith), 1954-; Crocker, Margarita B. This paper examines the relationship between the economic organization of the nuclear power industry and its perfornmance in designing and building nuclear power plants. The institutional relationships that link French, West German and Japanese utilities with their nuclear plant suppliers are described and compared. The focus is on three interrelated aspects of these relationships: (1) the extent of utility involvement in the supply process; (2) the extent to which the various supply functions are "horizontally" integrated; and (3) the nature of the contracts linking the utilities and their suppliers. The transaction cost approach provides the framework for the analysis. The central idea underlying this approach is that important efficiency consequences flow from decisions concerning whether to organize transactions contractually between firms or administratively within them, and that for any given transaction an optimal governance structure exists which depends in a predictable way on certain attributes of the transaction. There are substantial differences in nuclear power plant project organization among the three countries. The transaction cost approach cannot explain why these differences have arisen, since they are much less the outcome of the formal economic optimization process assumed in the theory than of state-specific factors, including industrial traditions, legal restrictions, political initiatives and administrative planning. Nevertheless, the approach provides qualitative insights into the economic implications of these differences. It also provides insights into why an organizational approach that is effective in one structural and/or national cultural context may be more or less effective in another.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Myers, Stewart C. Ruback, Richard S. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/18196 2019-04-11T09:10:23Z 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z

Discounting rules for risky assets Myers, Stewart C.; Ruback, Richard S. This paper develops a rule for calculating a discount rate to value risky projects. The rule assumes that the asset risk can be measured by a single index (e.g., beta), but makes no other assumptions about specific form of the asset pricing model. The rule works for all equilibrium theories of debt and taxes. The rule works because it treats all projects as combinations of two assets: Treasury bills and the market portfolio. We know how to value each of these assets under any theory of debt and taxes and under any assumption about the slope and intercept of the market line for equity securities. Given the corporate tax rate, the interest rate on Treasury bills, and the expected rate of return on the market, we can calculate the cost of capital for a feasible financing strategy. The firm finances the project with equity and debt in the proportions beta and (1- beta). Value increasing projects could be completely financed using this strategy. The weighted average cost of financing this project provides a discount rate that values the project correctly.

1986-01-01T00:00:00Z