https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/123319 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 17:35:10 GMT 2026-04-12T17:35:10Z http://dspace.mit.edu:80/bitstream/id/02388296-325c-4676-bd05-c2034fa6724b/ https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/123319 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142753.2 System Pathways Measurement Toolkit Gralla, Erica; Downing, Tristan; Blair, Courtney; Goentzel, Jarrod; Russell, Timothy Edward; Wetmore, Finley; Peters, Megan; Wiseman, Michaela; Miles, Jillian; Reinker, Madison; Steinberg, Sophie This toolkit’s purpose is to support the measurement of system status and change in systems-oriented development projects. Measuring change in a market system (or another complex development system) is challenging because of the system’s complexity: it is difficult (1) to know which parts of the system to measure and (2) how to interpret what a collection of diverse measurements tells us about change in the system. To address both of these challenges, the System Pathways Measurement Toolkit relies on a system map to capture the structure and interconnections of the system, then layers measurements onto the system map to enable the collective interpretation of diverse data on wide-ranging parts of the system. Tools are provided to interpret the measured map by zooming in and out to understand the progression of change in the system, diagnose problems and explain success. Guidance is provided in deciding which parts of a complex system to measure and in developing indicators that can be interpreted easily on the map, based on either available or to-be-collected data. Wed, 25 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142753.2 2022-05-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/155788 Scaling Post-Disaster Housing Capacity: Roundtable Report Finegan, Lauren; Goentzel, Jarrod; Reisman, Erin; Russell, Timothy Edward; Story, Drew In January 2024, the MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab held a roundtable on the theme of scaling construction capacity after disasters. The roundtable convened participants from academia, non-profit organizations, and both the public and private sectors. Participants brought varied perspectives to this issue, including considerations of supply chains, local, state, and federal policies, building codes, and private sector construction operations. The roundtable used recent natural disasters and their subsequent housing challenges to frame discussions around two goals: 1) identify approaches to increase capacity for rapidly deployable housing solutions after disasters, and 2) capture policy and operational constraints that hinder implementation of those rapidly deployable housing solutions. The roundtable and this report seek to catalyze systemic research and provide discrete recommendations to address the challenges and opportunities to restore housing for disaster survivors. Thu, 25 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/155788 2024-07-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/150581 Stochastic Analysis of Logistics Capacity in Disaster Response Networks Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander Quickly deploying relief items is key to reducing a population’s burden in case of sudden onset disasters. Emergency response organizations, such as FEMA or local and state agencies hold a strategic stockpile of critical relief items and contract for contingency stock in preparation for emergencies. Their response capacity depends on their decision to stock items at different depots, contracts with contingency suppliers, and procurement of transportation capacity to move these items. Building on prior work of Acimovic & Goentzel (2016) we develop a stochastic linear programming model to capture carrier capacity and contingency suppliers. Inputs to the model are a risk portfolio reflecting the particular disasters and the inherent uncertainty with respect to when an organization needs to address a large or a small disaster. Further inputs are the organic stockpile of critical relief items, referred to as the inventory portfolio, contracts with contingency suppliers, which we term the supplier portfolio, and the portfolio of carriers at any depot location. The model allows to conduct a system assessment and a system optimization. System assessment evaluates the current state and answers how well the current inventory, supplier, and carrier portfolio is able to meet a given risk portfolio. We present aggregate metrics to assess a system in three dimensions. We evaluate service metrics to answer how well the network meets demand of the affected population and how rapidly we reach the affected population, and efficiency metrics to indicate how much resources are necessary to meet demand. Taken together these metrics allow to evaluate the state of an emergency response network. System optimization identifies the optimal allocation of inventory for a given supplier and carrier portfolio against a given risk portfolio. The models provides the above mentioned metrics for a decision-maker to compare to optimal network to the current on. In addition, we prescribe an inventory balance, a carrier contract, and a carrier utilization metric to capture the value of improvement. In both – system assessment and system optimization – we evaluate a time-based model and a cost-based model to capture the inherent cost-time trade-off. Typically, more responsive suppliers and carriers are more expensive and less responsive suppliers and carriers are less expensive. When choosing where to allocate inventory, and which suppliers and carriers to contract an organization has to resolve this trade-off between cost and time. Our model provides insight into this trade-off and the impact on different performance metrics. We use data from the openFEMA API to construct a new risk portfolio and estimate an inventory and a carrier portfolio to show the feasibility and functionality of our approach. Thu, 01 Nov 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/150581 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142804 Feed the Future Uganda Market System Monitoring: HESN Buy-In Reporting Close-Out Addendum Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Blair, Courtney; Russell, Timothy Edward Tue, 31 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142804 2022-05-31T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142803 Feed The Future Uganda Market System Monitoring: Final Report Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Blair, Courtney; Russell, Timothy Edward Tue, 31 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142803 2022-05-31T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142795 Draft Methodology for Measuring Change in Market Systems Blair, Courtney; Gralla, Erica; Goentzel, Jarrod; Wetmore, Finley; Peters, Megan This document provides a brief overview of a methodology for measuring change in market systems. It describes a cycle of steps that enable the development, validation, use, and adaptation of a set of indicators for measuring system change. The following are included: • methodology description; • application of the methodology to the financial subsystem, including development of specific indicators; and • application of the methodology to explore the regulatory subsystem’s impact on other areas, including development of specific indicators. Fri, 27 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142795 2022-05-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142793 Farmer Survey Data Collection Training Manual by RWI Blair, Courtney; Russell, Timothy Edward; Goentzel, Jarrod Training Report by RWI for data collection of farmer data that CPMA had been managing and MSM took on as an additional task. Fri, 27 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142793 2022-05-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142791 Value Chain Relationship Study Memo Gralla, Erica; Peters, Megan The purpose of this study is to understand how to measure relationships, learn the (perceived) value actors gain from relationships, and identify the key dimensions of relationships that enable economic value. This will ultimately provide an approach for measuring relationships, e.g. indicators, an understanding of actor perceptions on relationship value (can be used for incentive design, e.g.), and as a follow-on, estimates of the value of different types/dimensions of agricultural supply chain relationships in Uganda. Fri, 27 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142791 2022-05-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142789 Postmortem on Recent Experiments with E-verification in Uganda's Seed Sector Blair, Courtney; Gralla, Erica; Goentzel, Jarrod This analysis is based on interviews conducted in June-July 2018 with selected seed companies, input dealers, industry representatives, USAID personnel, private sector participants, and a few additional stakeholders. Though not intended to be a fully rigorous analysis, these interviews shed some light on the recent experience with e-Verification programs in Uganda and the challenges that these programs faced. This debrief reflects the opinions expressed by select industry stakeholders. If desired, a more thorough post-mortem would require a formal survey of all input companies participating in e-Verification (including both seed and agricultural chemicals), as well as conversations with government officials and additional private sector participants. A broad survey of farmers and input dealers who were impacted by the programs would also be recommended. Our conversations focused specifically on maize seed, as maize was one of the priority crops for Feed the Future Uganda and given that e-verification faced some of its biggest challenges with maize seed. Indeed, the e-verification labels are still being used for vegetable seed in Uganda, which is almost exclusively imported, and certain agricultural chemicals, but are no longer widely used on maize seed packages. Fri, 27 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142789 2022-05-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142786 Uganda Agricultural Market Systems Workshop Summary Report Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Blair, Courtney; Russell, Timothy Edward; Picchione, Katherine; Miles, Jillian; Reinker, Madison; Peters, Megan In seeking to better understand Uganda’s agricultural market systems, working with partners to co-design programs which address bottlenecks, seize opportunities, and achieve systemic change, in support of the Government of Uganda’s Second National Development Plan, USAID hosted a three-day workshop March 15 - 17th, 2017 where 168 participants and presenters explored a market systems approach and developed a pipeline of actionable opportunities and challenges to inform future programming. From the workshop, USAID and its partners have produced seven actionable outputs that will inform investments and partnership opportunities moving forward: 1. A revised set of Uganda’s Agricultural Market Systems map was created, represented by ten subsystems: agro-processing, financial and business services; Production, Post-Harvest Handling and Storage; Human Resources; Inputs Importing & Manufacturing; Input Distribution; Farmer Practices; Commodity Distribution; Regulatory Environment; and Extension Services (Annex 1Uganda’s Agricultural Market Systems Overview Map). 2. Individual participant organizations identified the needed behaviors, ideal relationships and necessary conditions they believed were most important to drive change in the system. This is represented in the Behaviors, Relationships, and Conditions findings found in Annex 2. 3. Data knowns and unknowns were identified by individual participants to catalogue what is already out there and what still needs to be analyzed and commissioned for research (Annex 3Data). 4. All 168 participants “placed” themselves in Uganda’s agricultural market system, through the mapping exercise. This gives all participants a view into what actors are connected to them, both in the room and in the larger marketplace, what behaviors exhibited by what actors exert an influence on them, and what other actors and parts of the system they influence themselves. 5. Having identified areas for intervention and investment through the mapping exercises, a list of participant-identified “Opportunities and Challenges” was created by thematic area (Annex 5Opportunities and Challenges). Narratives supporting the conversations had around opportunities and challenges in these various thematic areas are also included in Annex 6 Narrative Summaries of Thematic Areas Opportunities and Challenges. 6. A participant vote tally on the relative importance of each thematic area. While not providing data to quantify the actual importance or weight of each area, this tally does provide a useful stock-taking or “temperature check” on how to prioritize investments, at least according to the 168 participants in the workshop (Annex 7 Thematic Areas with Participant Votes). 7. A reflection by workshop participants on what different kinds of actors need to start and stop doing to drive systemic change. Again, while not providing an analytically rigorous assessment of what actually needs to happen, this exercise provides a useful view into actor’s perspectives of other actors that they relate to the system (Annex 8 Start and Stop Exercise). Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142786 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142766 Draft Seed Sector Memos Blair, Courtney; Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142766 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142765 Ugandan Health System Mapping Gralla, Erica; Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Steinberg, Sophie Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142765 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142764 BRC Mapping Approach Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Peters, Megan; Russell, Timothy Edward; Blair, Courtney; Reinker, Madison; Miles, Jillian The Behaviors, Relationships, and Conditions (BRC) mapping approach is a way of diagramming complex systems in an intuitive and flexible way. Market conditions, actor behaviors, and inter-actor relationships are depicted within shapes that are connected by arrows. Arrows directionally indicate that one behavior, relationship, or condition enables another to occur. In complex systems, related activities can be grouped into subsystems to facilitate analysis. Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142764 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142763 Understanding Smallholder Access to Finance Gralla, Erica; Blair, Courtney; Wetmore, Finley System maps can be invaluable tools for organizing and visualizing data. As demonstrated here, adding data to the system map for agricultural finance made it easier to identify three important insights about the system, based on the status of key pathways. The data overlaid on the map was particularly critical in showing that physical access to loans was not, as many assumed, the primary barrier to greater uptake of agricultural loans . The map showed moderate and increasing access, yet loan uptake had not increased accordingly. Overlaying diverse data sets on a depiction of causal pathways was critical to noticing and “debunking” this commonly held assumption. The map could further be used to identify barriers to change and potential areas for investment, both of which serve to generate actionable recommendations for development practitioners to achieve various key system outcomes. Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142763 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142762 Quality-Differentiated Pricing Among Agricultural Traders Picchione, Katherine; Goentzel, Jarrod; Russell, Timothy Edward; Gralla, Erica The USAID Uganda Feed the Future Value Chain (FTF-VC) project uses a market facilitation approach to strengthen the value chains that serve smallholder farmers in Uganda. One of the goals is to improve profitability for farmers and other value chain actors by enabling improved quality and prices throughout the value chain. In a system where actors value quality and are willing to pay more for better products, farmers have the incentive to engage in practices to improve crop quality. To achieve a market for quality products, actors throughout the supply chain should offer and have access to quality-differentiated pricing (QDP). This study addresses a gap in understanding the factors that affect an actor’s ability to access and incentives to extend QDP. Key Takeaways: • QDP strengthens agricultural market systems by creating incentives to improve crop quality, leading to increased revenue. • Interventions to improve crop quality and formalize price setting are likely to help institutionalize QDP. • QDP should be further investigated in Uganda to understand its extent and drivers. • Market facilitation projects should encourage reinforcing behaviors that propagate QDP throughout the value chain. Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142762 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142761 Inputs Subsystem Study Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Blair, Courtney; Russell, Timothy Edward; Picchione, Katherine; Peters, Megan; Miles, Jillian; Reinker, Madison The USAID Uganda Feed the Future Value Chain (FTF-VC) project uses a market facilitation approach to impact the value chains that serve smallholder farmers in Uganda. This study focuses on the “inputs subsystem”: the part of the value chain that enables farmers to access inputs such as fertilizer and seeds. We aimed to understand whether and to what extent expected changes were occurring in the last four years of FTF-VC work by asking “How has the inputs “subsystem” been changing over time?” We focus on changes in key behaviors and relationships targeted by the FTF-VC project, and how they have manifested in three types of actors (see Figure 1): wholesalers and input dealers (or “agrodealers”), farmers, and output value chain actors (such as collectors / village agents or traders) who are involved in the inputs value chain. Key Recommendations: Feed the Future Uganda should • Investigate barriers to adoption by input wholesalers/dealers of a mindset focusing on delivering greater value to customers • Examine how output actors selling inputs affects the inputs value chain Market facilitation projects should • Design monitoring strategies that address both the need for longitudinal data and the need for widespread, adaptive measurement • Understand and account for delays in reaping benefits of changes Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142761 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142760 Market System Maps v1.0 Release Notes Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Picchione, Katherine; Peters, Megan; Miles, Jillian; Reinker, Madison; Russell, Timothy Edward Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142760 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142759 Market System Monitoring Activity Overview Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Gralla, Erica; Russell, Timothy Edward; Peters, Megan Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142759 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142758 Market System Mapping and Measuring Workshop Report 2016 Goentzel, Jarrod; Russell, Timothy Edward; Gralla, Erica; Peters, Megan Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142758 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142757 Farmer Market Engagement Study Survey Tools Blair, Courtney; Goentzel, Jarrod; Russell, Timothy Edward; Picchione, Katherine; Wiseman, Michaela Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142757 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142756 Preliminary Findings From Agribusiness Interviews Picchione, Katherine; Blair, Courtney; Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Russell, Timothy Edward; Wiseman, Micaela KEY FINDINGS 1. Small agribusinesses have adopted a spectrum of flexible business models. 2. Information is spread through relationships between market actors. 3. Most businesses rely on personal connections for credit; there is widespread distrust of formal financial institutions Thu, 26 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142756 2022-05-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142755 Uganda Farmer Market Engagement Study Final Report Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Wiseman, Michaela; Gralla, Erica; Steinberg, Sophie; Wetmore, Finley Wed, 25 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142755 2022-05-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142754 Market System Maps v2.0 Release Notes Gralla, Erica; Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Russell, Timothy Edward; Picchione, Katherine; Reinker, Madison; Miles, Jillian; Peters, Megan Wed, 25 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142754 2022-05-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142753 System Pathways Measurement Toolkit Gralla, Erica; Downing, Tristan; Blair, Courtney; Goentzel, Jarrod; Russell, Timothy Edward; Wetmore, Finley; Peters, Megan; Wiseman, Michaela; Miles, Jillian; Reinker, Madison; Steinberg, Sophie Wed, 25 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142753 2022-05-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142752 System Pathways Toolkit Annex Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Downing, Tristan; Russell, Timothy Edward; Wetmore, Finley; Gralla, Erica; Peters, Megan Wed, 25 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142752 2022-05-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142738 System Pathways Workshop Template Downing, Tristan; Russell, Timothy Edward; Blair, Courtney; Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Wetmore, Finley Wed, 25 May 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142738 2022-05-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/138838 National Fuel Ecosystem Assessment Summary Goentzel, Jarrod; Finegan, Lauren; Graham, Chelsey Diane; Russell, Timothy Edward This document presents a summary of the National Fuel Ecosystem Assessment performed by the Supply Chain Analysis Network (SCAN). SCAN is a team of supply chain subject matter experts, including the MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab, that supports FEMA with real-time analysis in the event of disasters or other supply chain disruptions, and systemic analysis during non-disaster times. Wed, 05 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/138838 2022-01-05T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/138837 Preparing PPE stockpiles for the next pandemic Finegan, Lauren; McGuigan, Molly From June 2020 - June 2021, members of Massachusetts General Hospital Center for Disaster Medicine and the MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab conducted a year-long research project to support public health planners in creating a state-level emergency stockpile of personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers. The research revealed opportunities for policymakers and emergency management professionals to improve PPE preparedness for the next pandemic. Wed, 05 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/138837 2022-01-05T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/133062 System Pathways Mapping Toolkit Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Gralla, Erica; Wetmore, Finley; Wiseman, Michaela; Peters, Megan; Downing, Tristan; Russell, Timothy Edward Wed, 20 Oct 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/133062 2021-10-20T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131193 Using Kumu: A Primer Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Wetmore, Finley; Downing, Tristan Kumu is an online system mapping tool used by the Market System Monitoring Activity to create system maps. Kumu is an online system mapping tool, available at https://kumu.io. It is open-source and free to use, and an excellent platform for creating dynamic, complex system maps that are easy to access and explore. The Karamoja Household Resilience System Map can be viewed at this address: https://kumu.io/MSM/msm-karamoja-household-resilience-system-map. Tue, 24 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131193 2021-08-24T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131192 Karamoja Resilience Map: The Basic Elements Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Wetmore, Finley; Downing, Tristan This guide is for interpreting the Karamoja Resilience System Maps, and provides descriptions of the different element types and connections on the system maps Tue, 24 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131192 2021-08-24T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131191 Applying System Mapping Techniques to Resilience: Case Study Resilience in Karamoja, Uganda Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Downing, Tristan The creation of the Resilience Map coincided roughly with the creation of the Karamoja Resilience Cluster in USAID. The Resilience Map focuses on Karamoja households and attempts to capture the unique aspects of Karamoja's livelihoods. This work is a key step in merging USAID's development and humanitarian fields, both Feed the Future and Food for Peace, and this map is a tool they use for collaboration. The Karamoja Household Resilience Systems Map was developed from a need to understand better the factors that enable a household to be resilient, specifically the interplay between humanitarian support and access to livelihoods and markets. The previous map created by the MSM team, the Uganda AgriculturalMarket System Map, captured a rough overview of household resilience as part of the broader agriculture market system. However, when it came to activities placing their interventions on the map and identifying important areas, the "Household Resilience" subsystem quickly became overwhelmed. Evidently, household resilience is a key part of the broader system and merits a more nuanced understanding. The creation of the Resilience Map coincided roughly with the creation of the Karamoja Resilience Cluster in USAID. Thus, the Resilience Map would focus on Karamoja households and attempt to capture the unique aspects of Karamoja's livelihoods. This work is a key step in merging the development and humanitarian fields in USAID. Both Feed the Future and Food for Peace activities operate in Karamoja, and the resilience map is a useful tool they can use for collaboration. Tue, 24 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131191 2021-08-24T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131190 Karamoja Market System Outbrief: Applying System Mapping to Collaboration, Learning, and Adaptation Blair, Courtney; Goentzel, Jarrod; Downing, Tristan System maps can be an essential tool for enabling collaboration, learning, and adaptation (CLA) by USAID Activities. System maps can be an essential tool for enabling collaboration, learning, and adaptation (CLA) by USAID Activities. As part of our work supporting USAID/Uganda, the USAID/Uganda Feed the Future Market System Monitoring (MSM) Activity developed two system maps representing aspects of the agricultural market system in the Karamoja region. In this report, we discuss how these maps can be used by USAID/Uganda’s Karamoja Cluster to identify opportunities for collaboration and adaptation, monitor system change, and develop a learning agenda. We also discuss key system-level insights that can be derived from the system maps. Sat, 21 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131190 2021-08-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131189 Identifying Pathways to Food Security and Inclusive Growth: Workshop Report Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Gralla, Erica; Russell, Timothy Edward; Wiseman, Michaela; Wetmore, Finley; Peters, Megan The June 2019 Feed the Future Workshop: Identifying Pathways to Food Security and Inclusive Growth was led by the USAID/Uganda Mission and organized by the USAID/Uganda Feed the Future Market System Monitoring Activity. On June 10th, 2019, the USAID/Uganda Mission hosted a workshop for Uganda’s Global Food Security Strategy (GFSS) portfolio, bringing together USAID staff and implementing partners working on Feed the Future, Food for Peace, and resilience programming. The workshop had three main objectives: 1. Bring together the broader group of stakeholders working on the Global Food Security Strategy in order to incorporate resilience programming more formally into the systems approach. 2. Strengthen the group’s collective understanding of USAID’s work on agriculture and food security in Uganda, particularly the opportunities for synergy and collaboration between Feed the Future and Resilience programs. 3. Solicit input from participants on where USAID should invest next: which interventions were working well, and where there were gaps that needed to be filled. The workshop was also designed to provide an introduction to the System Pathways Toolkit, a set of tools for mapping and measuring complex systems developed by the USAID/Uganda Feed the Future Market System Monitoring Activity (MSM). The MSM team organized and facilitated the workshop in consultation with the USAID/Uganda Economic Growth Unit. Sat, 21 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/131189 2021-08-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130906 Mapping Karamoja Cluster High-Level Outcomes: Applying System Mapping Techniques to Understanding Resilience Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Downing, Tristan This document outlines how to use a system map to examine high-level outcomes and their corresponding measures of success. This document is focusing on the Karamoja Cluster, but the methods could be applied to other situations where we are trying to achieve specific goals within a complex system. The document is made up of three sections: finding the High-Level Outcomes on a system map, examining the High-Level Outcomeson a system map, and examining the Measures of Success on a system map. System maps can be used to connect high-level outcomes to the technical details of interventions and show how a complex set of interventions and conditions are needed to achieve these high-level outcomes. This document outlines how to use a system map to examine high-level outcomes and their corresponding measures of success. This document focuses on the Karamoja Cluster, but the methods could be applied to other situations where we are trying to achieve specific goals within a complex system. The document is made up of three sections: 1. Finding the High-Level Outcomeson a system map: We show where the Karamoja Cluster’s high-level outcomes are located on a system map. 2. Examining the High-Level Outcomes on a system map: We take a closer look at one high-level outcome to examine what enables it. 3. Examining the Measures of Success on a system map: We take a closer look at two measures of success for the high-level outcome to examine what enables them and how to infer their status with limited information Mon, 07 Jun 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130906 2021-06-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130894 Using System Maps for CLA: Applying Systems Approaches to International Development Goentzel, Jarrod; Gralla, Erica; Blair, Courtney The USAID/Uganda Feed the Future Market System Monitoring Activity (MSM) is a partnership between the Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Washington University (GW). Our objective is to enable development practitioners to apply systems thinking to their development work. Our tools and approaches are particularly well suited for Collaboration, Learning, and Adaptation (CLA). Here we provide a brief overview of how system maps can be used for CLA. Tue, 01 Jun 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130894 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130893 Karamoja Resilience Cluster Workshop: Applying System Mapping Techniques to Resilience Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Downing, Tristan The Karamoja Resilience Cluster was established by USAID to improve collaboration and coordination in the Karamoja region. As of January 2020, it consisted of USAID’s implementing partners working in the districts of Kaabong, Karenga, and Kotido. In January 2020, the Market System Monitoring Activity (MSM) hosted a workshop for the Karamoja Resilience Cluster, with support from the Uganda Learning Activity (ULA). The workshop was attended by representatives of all of USAID’s activities in the districts, along with USAID/Uganda leadership and program staff. This workshop was the first convening of the Cluster and provided participants with an opportunity to understand each other’s work and conceptualize how the Cluster will operate moving forward. Tue, 01 Jun 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130893 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130099 Data-driven optimization of OFDA's disaster response capacity: Python Source Code Rothkopf, Alexander; Goentzel, Jarrod Thu, 01 Oct 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/130099 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129662 Data-driven optimization of OFDA's disaster response capacity: Final Report Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander; Graham, Chelsey Diane This final report summarizes the research methods and results in the project “Optimization-based Evaluation of USAID/OFDA Global Logistics Capacity”. This research was a part of the MIT Comprehensive Initiative on Technology Evaluation (CITE). Throughout the period of performance from May 2019 to September 2020 a research team from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab worked with the Office of Foreign Disaster Response, which was merged with USAID’s Food for Peace into the new Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), to research a model, methods, inputs, and outputs to support inventory decision-making for disaster response operations. In Phase I of the project the team worked to understand BHAs operational processes during disaster responds and collected data and information to characterize the operations. Key results are summarized in a report for Phase I and an accompanying presentation. Phase I revealed the complexities of planning disaster response operations at BHA. The team settled on researching model support for two key operational decisions: (1) How much inventory should BHA hold in each of the four global warehouses for disaster response, and (2) How much inventory in total should BHA carry in their system? The team also aimed to support decision-making through metrics that shed light into system performance and provide easy access and comparability among options. The team developed a stochastic linear program, relying on various data sets required for inputs, and created multiple methods to merge and extract important information relevant for modelling. The team created a model that supports strategic inventory decision-making in multiple ways. Results show that BHA can rely on the model to answer the strategic inventory allocation decisions raised above and use six key metrics to compare preparedness options: (i) Inventory balance metric, (ii) average time, (iii) average cost, (iv) % TAP served, (v) % fully served, and (vi) the inventory allocation metric. Over the course of the project BHA became convinced that the model can support critical decision-making. The team outlined a path towards implementing a decision-support tool and identified how a systematic decision-making process is a key prerequisite for effective implementation. Inspired by the sales & operations planning process (S&OP) used widely in the private sector, the team researched and developed a concept note for S&OP process for BHA’s disaster-response-planning activities. It highlights how such planning processes, especially in conjunction with a well-defined supply chain strategy, provide the framework for developing robust decision-support tools in the future. The work also revealed multiple interesting insights into operational strategies. For example, the research team was able to show that the number of people BHA typically seeks to serve relative to the total inventory in the system effects the level of inventory consolidation that is optimal in the network. This also underlined the importance of the disaster portfolio approach and the need for an appropriate estimation of the sets of disasters in this portfolio. The research team outlined an approach for using predictive analytics to determine a forward-looking disaster portfolio. This final report is accompanied by a set of documents that provide further details on model, methods, data, and results: (i) Phase I results presentation, (ii) Phase II results presentation, and a (iii) BHA S&OP document. Final Report Wed, 30 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129662 2020-09-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129661 Data-driven optimization of OFDA’s disaster response capacity: Final report presenation Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander; Graham, Chelsey Diane Final Report Presentation Thu, 30 Sep 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129661 2021-09-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129660 Data-drivien optimization of OFDA's disaster response capacity: Concept Note Sales & Operations Plan Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander; Graham, Chelsey Diane This document first reviews the general S&OP process that was originally developed for for-profit sector companies. The team then maps the for-profit S&OP application to a planning process that accommodates BHA’s organizational structure and needs. Finally, the team highlights how the model and the performance metrics can be included in the S&OP process and show a path for implementation at BHA. Concept Note: Sales & Operations Plan Sat, 26 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129660 2020-09-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129659 Data-drivien optimization of OFDA's disaster response capacity: Phase II - Workshop IV Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander; Graham, Chelsey Diane Phase II - Network Design Workshop IV Wed, 29 Apr 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129659 2020-04-29T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129658 Data-drivien optimization of OFDA's disaster response capacity: Phase II - Workshop III Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander; Graham, Chelsey Diane Phase II - Network Design Workshop III Thu, 09 Apr 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129658 2020-04-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129657 Optimization-based Evaluation of USAID/OFDA’s Global Logistics Capacity: Phase II - Workshop II Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander; Graham, Chelsey Diane Optimization-based Evaluation of USAID/OFDA’s Global Logistics Capacity: Phase II - Network Design Workshop II Tue, 24 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129657 2020-03-24T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129656 Data-drivien optimization of OFDA's disaster response capacity: Phase II Workshop I Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander; Graham, Chelsey Diane Phase II - Workshop I Tue, 03 Mar 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129656 2020-03-03T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129655 Data-driven optimization of OFDA's disaster response capacity: Phase I Report Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander The United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID’s) Office of Foreign Disasters Assistance (OFDA) collaborates with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab (HUSCL) at the Center for Transportation and Logistics (CTL) in the project “Optimization-based Evaluation of USAID/OFDA’s Global Logistics Capacity”. This collaboration intends to provide data-driven, model-based recommendations to optimize OFDA’s global response capabilities. The project runs from May 2019 until September 2020 and comprises two phases. In Phase I the project team conducted preliminary analyses to develop a deeper understanding of OFDA’s operations and collected the necessary information to conduct the modeling. Also, they used a preliminary model to showcase outputs and recommendations of a more tailored-modeling approach, which is the main focus of Phase II. This summary report highlights important findings and outlines a path forward for Phase II. Data-driven optimization of OFDA’s disaster response capacity: Phase I Report Mon, 30 Sep 2019 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129655 2019-09-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129654 Data-drivien optimization of OFDA's disaster response capacity: Phase I Report Analyses Goentzel, Jarrod; Rothkopf, Alexander Presentation for Phase I Report Mon, 16 Sep 2019 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129654 2019-09-16T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129417 Karamoja Kumu Mapping Guide Downing, Tristan; Blair, Courtney; Goentzel, Jarrod; Wetmore, Finley This guide is for interpreting the Karamoja Market System Maps, and provides descriptions of the different element types and connections on the system maps Wed, 13 Jan 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/129417 2021-01-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128434 Emergent Issues Related to Freight Systems Impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic These reports were generated by the Supply Chain Analysis Network (SCAN). MIT’s Humanitarian Supply Lab (HSCL)—along with Dewberry, the Center for Naval Analyses, and American Logistics Aid Network—work together as part of SCAN to support FEMA's Logistics Management Directorate during crisis activations. HSCL hosts three of the five team members that delivered national freight assessments over 10 weeks during SCAN’s 2020 COVID-19 activation. Each assessment followed a week-long research and industry peer review process before delivery to FEMA. Mon, 09 Nov 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128434 2020-11-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127826 COVID-19 Update Report No. 4 (Executive Summary) Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Downing, Tristan This report captures key impacts of COVID-19, and the corresponding government response, on the agriculture market system in Uganda. It is based on our analysis of more than 250 sources, including open-source data, articles, and reports, combined with targeted key informant interviews and insights derived from our system maps. This report provides updates to our previous analysis, as well as a discussion of the impact of COVID-19 on smallholder farmers. We also discuss which components of the agricultural market system should be monitored over the next few months in order to evaluate the impact on the system moving forward. Thu, 17 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127826 2020-09-17T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127825 COVID-19 Update Report No. 4 Goentzel, Jarrod; Downing, Tristan; Blair, Courtney This report captures key impacts of COVID-19, and the corresponding government response, on the agriculture market system in Uganda. It is based on our analysis of more than 250 sources, including open-source data, articles, and reports, combined with targeted key informant interviews and insights derived from our system maps. This report provides updates to our previous analysis, as well as a discussion of the impact of COVID-19 on smallholder farmers. We also discuss which components of the agricultural market system should be monitored over the next few months in order to evaluate the impact on the system moving forward. Mon, 21 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127825 2020-09-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127779 Optimization-based Evaluation of Global Logistics Capacity Rothkopf, Alexander; Graham, Chelsey Diane; Goentzel, Jarrod Humanitarian organizations, donor countries, and governments pre-position emergency supplies worldwide to facilitate rapid response to crisis needs. These organizations often pre-position stock at various warehouses around the world without formally analyzing how effectively this rapid response capacity can address future humanitarian needs. This may result in surplus stock, positioned too far for effective deployment, sitting idle (or expiring) in some locations and insufficient stock in other locations to provide timely response. USAID/OFDA has such response capacity through pre-positioned stock and could set an example for evidence-based resource allocation to address future humanitarian responses. Optimization-based metrics could assess the effectiveness of its global stock portfolio in addressing a portfolio of anticipated global disaster risks in the future. Such analysis could also be extended to consider contingent capacity from suppliers on contract, and incorporate a portfolio of transportation resources to move items from pre-positioning warehouses to disaster locations. Optimization-based metrics could then inform USAID/OFDA decision-making regarding stockpile deployment, and potentially contract negotiation for suppliers and transportation providers. This evidence base could also foster coordination efforts for humanitarian supply pre-positioning across organizations at the international, regional and national levels. Wed, 30 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127779 2020-09-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127658 Conducting a Rapid System Assessment Goentzel, Jarrod; Downing, Tristan; Blair, Courtney Nearly all development practitioners work in complex systems, and when a major shock occurs, it is important to understand the impact on the system as quickly as possible. In these situations, system maps serve as vital decision tools, helping practitioners to understand the state of the system after a shock (or throughout a prolonged shock) and to assess the feasibility and appropriateness of different intervention options. The USAID/Uganda Market System Monitoring Activity has developed tools for practitioners to apply systems thinking to a diverse set of sectors and systems. Our system maps are built around an intuitive framework of behaviors, conditions, and relationships. They allow practitioners to visualize complex systems, track how the systems adapt and transform, and measure how change propagates through the system. To learn more about creating system maps, please contact the MSM team. This document explains how to use a system map to conduct a rapid assessment of the impact of a particular shock on a system. We have also created an example using a free online system mapping tool, Kumu – links to this example map as well as a guide to the example are provided at the end of the document. Mon, 21 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127658 2020-09-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127281 COVID-19 Update Report No. 3 Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Downing, Tristan This report captures key impacts of COVID-19, and the corresponding government response, on the agriculture market system in Uganda. This update report focuses on agricultural commodity distribution, particularly wholesaling, transportation, processing, and distribution. It is based on our analysis of open-source information combined with targeted key informant interviews and insights derived from system maps. These assessments will be updated as new information becomes available. Mon, 20 Jul 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127281 2020-07-20T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127280 COVID-19 Update Report No. 2 Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Downing, Tristan This report captures key impacts of COVID-19, and the corresponding government response, on the agriculture market system in Uganda. This update report discusses the impact on the agricultural inputs supply chain, based on our analysis of open-source information combined with insights derived from system maps. These assessments will be updated as new information becomes available. Thu, 25 Jun 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127280 2020-06-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127279 COVID-19 Update Report No. 1 Goentzel, Jarrod; Blair, Courtney; Downing, Tristan The preventative measures imposed by the Government of Uganda to curb the spread of COVID-19 are likely to have an impact on various components of the agricultural market system, which could aggregate into broader systemic effects. The Market System Monitoring team is conducting an analysis of the agricultural market system to anticipate the impact of COVID-19 and these preventative measures. This first assessment is based on our previous knowledge of the system, as well as consultations with a few key stakeholders. We will be updating our analysis as we gather more information and as the situation changes. Mon, 01 Jun 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127279 2020-06-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127277 Guide to Shock Maps in Kumu Downing, Tristan; Goentzel, Jarrod; Wetmore, Finley; Blair, Courtney To demonstrate how to conduct a Rapid System Assessment, we have created an example based on a notional representation of how COVID-19 could impact income generation in Karamoja, a relatively isolated region of Uganda where households are primarily engaged in agriculture and pastoralism. Tue, 15 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127277 2020-09-15T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127186 Disaster Supply Chains: From Situational Awareness to Actionable Analysis Boutilier, Justin James; Goentzel, Jarrod; Windle, Michael Achieving situational awareness is insufficient when it comes to restoring private sector supply chains. More important than being aware of the current situation is correctly understanding interdependent supply chains, forecasting resources and flows, and knowing where and how to intervene with government assistance. Private sector organizations achieve supply chain visibility with enterprise resource systems. Achieving the same visibility across competing and decentralized private sector organizations will require a shift in how the emergency management community approaches cooperation and data aggregation. Accurate, timely, and representative data feeds are required for explanatory, forecasting, and prescriptive tools that should be used dynamically during disasters, not afterwards. Successful data aggregation strategies will require a mix of connecting to pre-existing data feeds and collecting information directly through creation of voluntary trusted spaces and mandatory reporting requirements. Complex models that leverage optimization and machine learning can provide emergency managers with a better understanding of the causes and remedies of supply chain disruption. Models will take time and effort to develop and employ. Models should support, not replace, current information sources to enable better decision making. Improved communication between government and the private sector is critical for improved disaster response. Collaboration between public and private sector actors will contribute to better information flow and help prioritize recovery efforts. Fri, 31 May 2019 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127186 2019-05-31T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126772 Supply Chain Resilience: Restoring Business Operations After a Hurricane Goentzel, Jarrod; Windle, Michael MIT’s Humanitarian Response Lab at the Center for Transportation and Logistics (CTL) held a roundtable on supply chain resilience in the face of large-scale disasters. To gather a cross-sectional understanding of the issue, the event convened participants from academia, public sector, and private sector – who brought their respective perspectives to illuminate this crucial intersection of management science, government policy, and business strategy. To ensure candor, this report was prepared under the Chatham House Rule of not identifying the specific speakers or affiliations of the anecdotes, insights, or recommendations. The roundtable used three major hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, and Maria) during 2017 as a focal point for gathering multiple points of view from the public and private sector and spanning supply chains from manufacturer to retailer. The roundtable and this report are aimed to catalyze more systematic research of the issues and opportunities revealed by shared discussion of how business and government support survivors and restore a disaster-impacted economy. Fri, 08 Dec 2017 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126772 2017-12-08T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126737 Actionable Analysis: Simulating and Visualizing Fuel Distribution During Disasters Russell, Timothy Edward; Boutilier, Justin James; Kleinmann, Sarah; Goentzel, Jarrod The aim of this project is to develop analytical concepts and tools that can be employed by FEMA to improve supply chain resiliency and adaptability during crises. Proposed frameworks and models are designed for use by emergency management leaders and private sector collaborators to assist in disaster preparedness planning, guide emergency response and recovery, or both. The key is to develop concepts and tools that enable actionable analysis. Fundamental to our research is the concept of sentinel surveillance developed for application in public health and epidemiology. Sentinel surveillance monitors selected nodes in a health network – sentinel points – to collect data that can be used to identify an impending public health issue. Regular data collection at sentinel points can be used to track trends in public health. Sentinel indicators based on such trend data can be tailored to track different public health issues. Further investigation or intervention can be triggered when the sentinel indicator deviates beyond a threshold. We adapt the idea of sentinel surveillance to monitor the health of supply chains, ranging from upstream supply networks to downstream demand networks that serve communities. The focus of this surveillance is on private sector supply chains that have the most capacity to provide essential commodities. Our analysis aims to identify appropriate sentinel points in private sector networks to diagnose issues, evaluate potential supply chain interventions to accelerate restoration of predisaster business operations, and anticipate where public sector gap-filling support for essential commodities is most needed. Wed, 15 Jul 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/126737 2020-07-15T00:00:00Z