Enhancing Community Risk Preparedness for Flooding Emergencies: A System Dynamics Approach for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Abstract

Flooding events pose a significant and growing threat to communities in the United States, particularly as climate change alters weather patterns and sea levels continue to rise. This thesis examines how the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) can enhance community preparedness for flood emergencies through improved risk communication strategies. Focusing on the New England District as a representative case, it integrates data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) National Household Survey and the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims archive to develop and calibrate a System Dynamics model of flood risk perception and preparedness. The model built in this thesis incorporates key variables and captures the feedback loops that influence community preparedness over time. Scenario testing demonstrates that monthly to quarterly engagements by USACE help sustain risk awareness and reduce flood-related damage, whereas less frequent engagement demonstrates minimal improvement above the baseline. By contrast, barriers to action, such as complex procedures or limited access to information, can substantially slow the adoption of preparedness measures. High levels of trust in authorities further amplify the effectiveness of risk communication and foster community engagement. This model quantifies the importance of frequent engagement, low barriers to action, and trust-building initiatives in reducing flood impact. Through calibration against historical claims and survey data, the model provides a robust framework that can guide USACE and partner agencies in refining their own flood risk communication strategies to bolster community resilience.