Evaluating the Strategic Intent and Competitive Dynamics of China’s Satellite Communications Constellations

Abstract

This thesis examines the strategic, technical, and economic feasibility of China’s two flagship low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite megaconstellation programs, Guowang and Qianfan, in the context of the rapidly evolving global satellite communication (Satcom) market. Against the backdrop of SpaceX’s Starlink dominance and intensifying geopolitical competition, China’s efforts represent not only a telecommunications infrastructure push but also a broader assertion of technological sovereignty and global influence. This study uses a scenario-based analysis that integrates system throughput analysis and financial forecasting. Three deployment scenarios (base, optimistic, and pessimistic) are analyzed, accounting for satellite production rates, launch capabilities, and regional adoption patterns, particularly across Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) markets. The study also evaluates "system-of-systems" integration with China’s military objectives, and spectrum coordination challenges. Key findings reveal that Guowang becomes marginally viable only in the optimistic scenario, assuming deployment of at least 9,000 satellites, reduced satellite unit costs (targeting ~$300,000 per satellite), expanded gateway infrastructure, and realization of these targets by 2035, while remaining unviable in base and pessimistic cases. Qianfan faces greater commercial risk, achieving viability only with early adoption in BRI countries and government dual-use contracts, incurring a pessimistic-case NPV loss exceeding $76B. Resource allocation problem (RAP) modeling suggests that projected throughput may saturate early without major gateway expansion. Both constellations require China to scale reusable rockets and sustain a combined annual launch rate exceeding 1,000 satellites by the early 2030s. Neither constellation system meets China’s 2030 rural broadband targets under base-case conditions, over 40% of the 336M unconnected citizens remain underserved without terminal subsidies. Ultimately, China’s LEO Satcom strategy depends not on satellite count alone but on coordinated progress in launch economics, affordability, dual-use policy, and international partnerships.