Scheduling Strategies for Bus Operator Retention: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation of Bus Operator Preferences and 4-Day Workweek Feasibility

Abstract

Public transit agencies face significant and growing challenges related to workforce shortages, absenteeism, and employee retention, which threaten service reliability. Reports found that 90% of U.S. transit agencies are experiencing a workforce shortage, with 84% claiming that the shortage affects their ability to provide scheduled service. Industry-wide, operator absence is a significant contributor to missed work at transit agencies nationwide and has, in many cases, delayed the full reinstatement of service at transit agencies following the COVID-19 pandemic. The quality of bus operators' work is significantly impacted by inflexible crew scheduling constraints. However, most studies focus on pay, benefits, and infrastructure, neglecting the importance of scheduling. This thesis aims to fill this gap by examining the potential for crew scheduling improvements to enhance the quality of life for bus operators through a three-part case study at the Chicago Transit Authority. Part 1 analyzes the historical work preferences of CTA bus operators, providing actionable insights for scheduling improvements. Part 2 presents a high-fidelity proof of concept in HASTUS, using block schedules (10-hour-a-day runs that are intended to be run by an operator 4 days a week) and rostering to reduce negative work traits, increase consecutive and weekend days off for most operators, while maintaining schedules for the top 20% of senior operators. Part 3 evaluates the new 10-hour, 4-day-per-week packaged schedules via an LLM-based paired alternatives survey of operators at one CTA garage, measuring the desirability of the proof of concept and collecting qualitative feedback. Overall, the new schedules substantially improve the quality of work for operators by guaranteeing at least one weekend day off, at least two consecutive days off, and increasing day-to-day schedule consistency and overnight rest time, while maintaining constant vehicle requirements and total pay hours. The survey results show that 72% of operators at the 74th Street garage support the new schedule paradigm, demonstrating strong support for their potential adoption and encouraging future exploration of a block schedule hybrid rostering paradigm at the CTA and other transit agencies.