Spatially Resolved Temperature Response Functions to CO2 Emissions

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions affect local temperature; quantifying that local response is important for learning about the earth system, the impacts of mitigation, and adaptation needs. We assume the climate system can be represented as a time-dependent linear system, diagnosing Green's Functions for the spatial temperature response to CO2 emissions based on CMIP6 earth system models. This allows us to emulate the linear component of the temperature response to CO2. This approach is sufficient to capture the spatial temperature response of CMIP6 experiments within one standard deviation of the multimodel spread across most regions, though accuracy is lower in the Southern Ocean and the Arctic. Our approach reveals where nonlinear feedbacks are important in current CMIP6 models, and where the local system response is well represented by a time-dependent linear differential operator. It incorporates emissions path dependency and may be useful for evaluating large ensembles of emission scenarios.